Today's paper trading plan review and thoughts
Today's trading plan review and thoughts
First of all, today's plan is much better than yesterday's.
First of all, today's plan is much better than yesterday's.
What a day for bulls.
What a day for bulls. DOW Jones hits the 10000 benchmark !
It's really a bull market ! As mentioned before several times.
A market correction may be coming soon again
A market correction may be coming soon again, but we are still in the bull market mood as mentioned before.
S&P 500 is still in a good shape for the bulls
S&P 500 is still in a good shape for the bulls. See below the chart, until 1060 is broken down, I am not worried about the bullishness of the market.
Changed the blog time setting to the US Eastern Time Zone
Changed the blog time setting to the US Eastern Time Zone, which is exactly the time zone for the US stock market open and close.
As a result, my real time paper trading record may be more easily tracked.
The previous time setting is US Central Time Zone.
As a result, my real time paper trading record may be more easily tracked.
The previous time setting is US Central Time Zone.
Long10000 UNG@11.85 this morning
I will make a column of paper trading record from now on to disclose some of my paper trades on the real time basis.
Nightmare of the 401 (K) plan
These days, the media are talking about the 401(K) plans or similar defined contribution plans. Actually, most of them are criticizing such defined contribution plans, compared to the traditional defined benefits plans such as pensions.
Weekly Review
This is a great week for the bulls, no doubt about that at all.
The S&P 500 has been UP for 5 days in a row ! What a nice week for the bulls !
The S&P 500 has been UP for 5 days in a row ! What a nice week for the bulls !
UCTT - update: UP more than 20 percent today
UCTT is a nice bull today, it is UP more than 20 percent today !
It is also ranked number one in the NASDAQ market UP list today.
It is also ranked number one in the NASDAQ market UP list today.
UNG - a nice chart with gap up
UNG's chart is pretty nice, with an island reversal gap up, which usually is pretty bullish.
Previous island reversal gap up chart have been shown in the NASDAQ intra-day chart when NASDAQ is about 1800, which can be found in the blog here. since then the NASDAQ market has been keeping up !
Previous island reversal gap up chart have been shown in the NASDAQ intra-day chart when NASDAQ is about 1800, which can be found in the blog here. since then the NASDAQ market has been keeping up !
The 1060 has been broken out with a gap
The 1060 has been broken out with a gap, which is exactly what i am feeling yesterday. Quoted here: "The intra-day reversal is pretty bullish." "One thing I am feeling is that another gap is in the shaping"
VISN - another china play chart set up
VISN is another china play chart set-up.
It has been trading in the range around $4 to $8 for almost a year so far.
The breakout of $8 should be good for the stock's bullish run.
A range trading day
A range trading day today, as pointed out yesterday, S&P 500 as an example, 1045 and 1060 are the two boundaries, that are need to be broken out or broken down.
The intra-day reversal is pretty bullish. However, you never know what could happen before the market can determine a definite answer for the next direction.
ETFC - the important ER date
ETFC - the important ER date for its third quarter 2009 financial results has changed to after the close of the U.S. financial markets on Tuesday, October 27, 2009.
I am pretty optimistic with ETFC's ER.
Previous updates on ETFC can be found here.
I am pretty optimistic with ETFC's ER.
Previous updates on ETFC can be found here.
EPIC - a nice breakout chart
EPIC - a nice breakout chart ! Based on the chart, the $7 level has been broken out. Hopefully, it can hold and run.
Previous important breakout charts are listed here.
Previous important breakout charts are listed here.
S&P 500 is bounced off 1060 as predicted
yesterday ! Here are the quotes from yesterday's post "Next major resistance level is 1060". Today many traders shorted the market at about 1060. How amazing it is for chart reading in the business of trading !
Now it's hard to tell which one (bull or bear) is winning the battle. Tomorrow will be a key day to watch:
Now it's hard to tell which one (bull or bear) is winning the battle. Tomorrow will be a key day to watch:
China play - CPBY
China play - CPBY
The chart of CPBY is pretty bullish and has a nice breakout pattern. Fundamentally, the company is making pretty good money.
The chart of CPBY is pretty bullish and has a nice breakout pattern. Fundamentally, the company is making pretty good money.
S&P 500 bounced off the 50MA
S&P 500 bounced off the 50MA.
Very nice day !
Next major resistance level is 1060, if 1060 can be taken over by bulls, I will expect a new higher high than 1080.15 in the near future ! Bulls are not dead yet.
Very nice day !
Next major resistance level is 1060, if 1060 can be taken over by bulls, I will expect a new higher high than 1080.15 in the near future ! Bulls are not dead yet.
AVII - a possible bull
AVII - a possible bull. The chart set-up is in the shaping and the company's possible drug R&D is promising as well.
Reaction line, Reflective Wave, and Reaction Wave
The Reaction line, Reflective Wave, and Reaction Wave, in addition to the trap-zones and money-making zones are the key aspects of a chart reading, and can clearly give us the clue where the price will go and what stage it is in now.
A trend will be formed when reaction lines are continuously going up or going down.
A trend will be formed when reaction lines are continuously going up or going down.
The unemployment rate for September, 2009
The unemployment rate for September, 2009 is 9.8 percent. Last Month's unemployment rate is 9.7 percent.
The weak labor market could undermine economic recovery, to some degree, in my own opinion.
The weak labor market could undermine economic recovery, to some degree, in my own opinion.
What a bloody day today
What a bloody day today ! So far, bears win because bears broke down 1050, which is a key level for bulls as pointed before.
On September 23, 2009, I have posted the warning sign for bulls here. I sincerely hope you have unloaded some longs or loaded some shorts for hedging. Trading is like driving, when warning signs show, slow down your driving or adjust your positions and be prepared for possible dangers.
On September 23, 2009, I have posted the warning sign for bulls here. I sincerely hope you have unloaded some longs or loaded some shorts for hedging. Trading is like driving, when warning signs show, slow down your driving or adjust your positions and be prepared for possible dangers.
CIT - abnormal gaps up and down
These past two days are not peaceful for the CIT stock traders and investors because the CIT gap up and gap down very dramatically yesterday and today.
Such gaps are hard if our positions are on the wrong side. Nevertheless, gaps are quite common in the stock markets, such as SQNM yesterday.
The key is to understand these gaps well and avoid them, if these gaps can not be taken advantage of.
Such gaps are hard if our positions are on the wrong side. Nevertheless, gaps are quite common in the stock markets, such as SQNM yesterday.
The key is to understand these gaps well and avoid them, if these gaps can not be taken advantage of.
- Avoid stocks that have a lot "hot" problems and on the news media
- Buying in only around the reaction line during the reaction wave, which will minimize the loss if the market against you and maximize the profits if the market is in favor your expectations.
Very very fortunately, today
S&P 500 - 1050
is the key level to watch now, as mentioned yesterday.
Please also notice that CIT has a big jump yesterday, and then a big drop today. Very very interesting. I will post the chart analysis of CIT later.
Please also notice that CIT has a big jump yesterday, and then a big drop today. Very very interesting. I will post the chart analysis of CIT later.
Important Previous Predictions Review
I add this new column to review previous important predictions, and see why I am correct and why I am wrong. As a result, I can improve my understanding of the stock market motion and development as well as my blog readers trading skills.
1. NASDAQ analysis on May 7, 2009
2. Is the Mad bull coming back ?
3. FAZ to $2 and sell QID at 35
4. Nasdaq target
5. My current view on US stock market and predictions on September 12, 2009
6. S&P 500 correction target ~1000
7. Market enters a correction
8. S&P 500 sees 1100 again pretty soon (realized)
1. NASDAQ analysis on May 7, 2009
2. Is the Mad bull coming back ?
3. FAZ to $2 and sell QID at 35
4. Nasdaq target
5. My current view on US stock market and predictions on September 12, 2009
6. S&P 500 correction target ~1000
7. Market enters a correction
8. S&P 500 sees 1100 again pretty soon (realized)
the danger of the trading - SQNM
It's a hard day for those SQNM long holders. On the other side, it's a very cheerful day for those lucky SQNM short holders ! The October $4 Put just jump 1,775.00% in one day !
- Before the reaction line $4.44 is settled, anything could happen for both bulls and bears
- The small scale chart tells the story clearly
- Buying in only around the reaction line during the reaction wave. The potential loss will greatly reduced if the break down and break out take place with a huge gap
The market shows the power of the chart reading again today
The market shows the power of the chart reading again today !
Yesterday, in the general US stock market view post, I used the S&P 500 as an example and pointed out the following key point:
Today, when S&P 500 hits 1070 (actually 1069.62), it just comes back ! Isn't it beautiful ! Every time when the market proves my hypothesis, I am very pleased, not purely by the money made from the testing, but more by the better understanding of the market motions and evolutions.
So far, the market motion is pretty clear, and I want to point out the following key points to watch:
Yesterday, in the general US stock market view post, I used the S&P 500 as an example and pointed out the following key point:
Today, when S&P 500 hits 1070 (actually 1069.62), it just comes back ! Isn't it beautiful ! Every time when the market proves my hypothesis, I am very pleased, not purely by the money made from the testing, but more by the better understanding of the market motions and evolutions.
So far, the market motion is pretty clear, and I want to point out the following key points to watch:
- 1050 - Bears need to break down this number in order to achieve a measurable bearish move
- 1070 - Bulls need to break out this level in order to sustain the bullish move
RINO - another crazy bull breakout
RINO - another crazy bull breakout.
10 Bagger in half year, and breakout again quickly with a 100% gain in one Month.
A very classical chart to learn the rules how a stock is moving !
Other successful breakout chart patterns and the follow-ups can be found here !
10 Bagger in half year, and breakout again quickly with a 100% gain in one Month.
A very classical chart to learn the rules how a stock is moving !
Other successful breakout chart patterns and the follow-ups can be found here !
ETFC - updates
As pointed out last week, 1.80 is a key price level for ETFC, once 1.80 holds well, it will retest $2.00, the benchmark, again. And this time, if 2 is retested, very very possible, $2 will be broken out and become the next levels support.
The market is pretty bullish today
The market is pretty bullish today ! It shows a sign of the end of the market correction. However, before I make a definite conclusion. Bulls need to follow through and break out 1070, which is the key resistance for the bulls now !
As mentioned last Wednesday, "It is still a bull market, the major trend has not changed. That's for sure. A trap-zone might be in the shaping now. That's the fact."
As mentioned last Wednesday, "It is still a bull market, the major trend has not changed. That's for sure. A trap-zone might be in the shaping now. That's the fact."
What a BUll - RODM - up 4200% in about 6 Months
What a Bull - RODM - up 4200% in about 6 Months !
The chart pattern is so standard ! A classical chart to learn how to trade with the chart !
Other successful breakout chart patterns and the follow-ups can be found here !
The chart pattern is so standard ! A classical chart to learn how to trade with the chart !
Other successful breakout chart patterns and the follow-ups can be found here !
Reaction line
In addition to the stock price movement theory and model, trap-zones and money-making zones, today I want to introduce another important concept: the reaction line. Please note that this concept is invented by myself. Nobody talked about this before, to the best of my knowledge. Or may be partially, in other names.
The reaction line is super important because via observing its elasticity you can know where the market will go next. Very reliable !
The reaction line can be classified as bullish reaction line and bearish reaction line.
The good long and short entry point is around the reaction line during the reaction wave to test the elasticity of the reaction line.
Once no elasticity or very few elasticity is shown for the reaction line during the tests of the reaction wave. A possible transition of the reaction may be coming soon, which serves as a warning sign to act and to protect your positions as soon as possible.
The beauty of the reaction line is that it can help us to ride with the big wave and avoid losses when the trend is reversed and against us. Very very neat. Once I have the opportunities, I will explain how to apply it in more details.
The reaction line is super important because via observing its elasticity you can know where the market will go next. Very reliable !
The reaction line can be classified as bullish reaction line and bearish reaction line.
The good long and short entry point is around the reaction line during the reaction wave to test the elasticity of the reaction line.
Once no elasticity or very few elasticity is shown for the reaction line during the tests of the reaction wave. A possible transition of the reaction may be coming soon, which serves as a warning sign to act and to protect your positions as soon as possible.
The beauty of the reaction line is that it can help us to ride with the big wave and avoid losses when the trend is reversed and against us. Very very neat. Once I have the opportunities, I will explain how to apply it in more details.
A new IPO - AONE up 50% in the first day
A new IPO - AONE up 50% in the first day. It may induce some short term opportunities for either long or short side.
It is a battery maker.
It is a battery maker.
Trade the stocks with a humble heart
I really think, as a human being, we need to trade the stocks with a humble heart, actually, a very humble heart. Because the stock market is very very complex for any one to precisely get in at the lowest point and get out at the highest price. That's impossible !
However, that doesn't mean nobody can make money from the stock market. Instead, some people really made a fortune from the stock market. One key factor for us to be able to make money from the stock market, I think, is to be humble !
Then how to be humble ?
Here is my answer: when the market is against you, you need to be humble, and then follow the market, not fight with it.
How to turn this answer into practice ? Take selling as an example:
However, that doesn't mean nobody can make money from the stock market. Instead, some people really made a fortune from the stock market. One key factor for us to be able to make money from the stock market, I think, is to be humble !
Then how to be humble ?
Here is my answer: when the market is against you, you need to be humble, and then follow the market, not fight with it.
How to turn this answer into practice ? Take selling as an example:
- You bought a stock ABCD at $10 and expect it go to $20 in one month. Unfortunately, it just climbs to $15 and coming back to $14, $13, and $12 ... what should you do then ? Still hold it and wait for your expected $20 to come in one day ? Absolutely not ! You need to be humble and protect your profits. Then you might wonder, what will happen if after my selling at $12, the stock jumps to $13. Take it easy, then. If you still think the stock ABCD can go back to $20 with a solid reason, then chase it ! No big deal ? right ?
- Holding positions always means you are exposed to some market risks. So stay alert ! Once the market development is against your expectation. Just sell all of them and protect yourself. Again, you can always buy back later when the market performs the way you expect.
As always, we
- buy in positions for expected profits; If the expected profits don't come as we expected, we need to exit the position to avoid the cash loss risk.
- sell out positions to avoid the expected loss; If the expected losses turned out to be a good profits opportunity, we need to be humble and buy back the position to avoid the missing opportunities.
However, to make these more practical, you need to build up a systematic approach and follow it closely by yourself.
SPX analysis and expectations
My expectation for this market correction is S&P 500 1000. So Let's see if 1000 can be touched and if 1000 can hold the market well.
ETFC updates and my expectations
As mentioned before, the gap up with negative divergence have induced a measurable correction on ETFC from above 2 to as low as 1.69 to date. Below are my expectations on ETFC:
- If it can not stands well above 1.80, it will test the 1.69 support
- Once 1.69 is broken down, I expect ETFC will come to 1.50 level again
- If 1.50 can not hold it, then 1.25 is the next retreat target
- The key is 250MA should level out and finally level UP
- I really don't expect it will come back to below 1.15 level, if so, which is very unexpected, then the big trend reversal as initially called here in ETFC is gone.
Expectations
Trading stocks is just like doing research ! You need to have expectations!
Following this way, your trading and investment skills will dramatically improve as time passes by.
- You have your hypotheses
- You have your expectations, which is based on your hypotheses
- The market development will either performs as you expected or not performs as you expected
Following this way, your trading and investment skills will dramatically improve as time passes by.
Warning sign for the Bulls
Warning sign for the Bulls: It has been for some time that I have not observed all stock indexes including China, Europe, and US are dropping largely at the end of the trading day. This could be a warning sign for the bulls - a market correction may be coming soon.
However, it still need to closely monitor the market in order to understand how deep and how long of this market correction . So, no panic yet for bulls.
It is still a bull market, the major trend has not changed. That's for sure. A trap-zone might be in the shaping now. That's the fact.
However, it still need to closely monitor the market in order to understand how deep and how long of this market correction . So, no panic yet for bulls.
It is still a bull market, the major trend has not changed. That's for sure. A trap-zone might be in the shaping now. That's the fact.
YRCW - what a bull today
YRCW - what a bull today ! See the chart below ! In a big down day like today, it is pretty nice.
S&P 500 5 days chart update and comments
Below is the S&P 500 5 days chart
- so far so good
- no dangerous signs for bulls yet
- even the warning signs is not clear yet
ETFC - 5 day charts update
This is an ETFC 5 days chart update.
- Previous "V" pattern bottom line broken down
- Gap up with negative divergence, signals a measurable correction
- Previous analysis on ETFC and other stocks can be found here.
FFBC - what kind of bullish run
FFBC - what kind of bullish run ! Really, it is ! The chart is pretty neat to study with!
Other important breakout charts are listed here as well.
Other important breakout charts are listed here as well.
ETFC - the money-making zone is in the shaping
ETFC - the money-making zone is in the shaping.
I will apply my stock price movement theory to chart the movement of ETFC from today. Previous analysis on ETFC and other stocks can be found here.
I will apply my stock price movement theory to chart the movement of ETFC from today. Previous analysis on ETFC and other stocks can be found here.
CLFD - continue to make new higher high
CLFD is so good today. It is making new higher high today. very nice !
Previous comments on CLFD can be found here.
Previous comments on CLFD can be found here.
Random Market Thoughts
Over the weekend, I have run over tons of historic chart to exam my trading system and hope to discover some truth and laws of trading and investment. Below is a brief list:
- In order to earn big, you need to be able to tolerate some market fluctuations. No bullish run is forming a line. So is the bearish move.
- The key is to identify the meaningful market corrections.
- These market corrections could lead to a trend reversal. You need to know when a market correction evolves into a trend reversal.
- Big trend changes slowly. If you want to earn big, you need to give your stocks and the market time to make your big profits.
- The key is to sit tight when you are correct. However, sitting tight doesn't mean doing nothing. You still need to closely watch the market development and understand its stages. You also need to know the signs for a meaningful market correction. More important, you need to know the signs for a market trend reversal.
- The rules could be simple. But it really requires a deep understanding the market, especially how the market motion is dynamically evolved.
ETFC chart updates
Below is the latest ETFC chart, there is a trap-zone, formed on the chart, so far.
ETFC initially grabbed my attention when its chart said a potential trend reversal. The initial chart and post can be found here.
Since then, some followups and comments on ETFC can be found here.
ETFC initially grabbed my attention when its chart said a potential trend reversal. The initial chart and post can be found here.
Since then, some followups and comments on ETFC can be found here.
The right thinking for the investment
The right thinking for the investment
Through more than 10 years' US and China stock market investment and speculation experience, I have learned a lot lessons. Actually, tons of them. However, the most important one so far for myself, I think, is the right thinking !
Thinking is a vital thing, not just for trading, but also for your whole life.
What you think will ultimately determine what you will do !
It's a big topic, and many bright minds are doing such researches and wish to decode the magics behind our brains.
One key thinking I want to share here is:
Through more than 10 years' US and China stock market investment and speculation experience, I have learned a lot lessons. Actually, tons of them. However, the most important one so far for myself, I think, is the right thinking !
Thinking is a vital thing, not just for trading, but also for your whole life.
What you think will ultimately determine what you will do !
It's a big topic, and many bright minds are doing such researches and wish to decode the magics behind our brains.
One key thinking I want to share here is:
- The BIG market trend never ever easily and quickly changes, to the best of my knowledge, it really needs time to develop, to grow, and to die ! So hang on for the BIG picture with peace and joy in your heart !
For other important investment ideas, please follow the link here.
CLFD - up 500% so far
CLFD, one of our 10 baggers list, has become a 5 bagger in 4 months. Just so nice ! So wonderful !
Some previous followups and comments on CLFD can be found here.
To be able to make big money in this "investment" game, there is only one way: sit tight when you are correct with the BIG trend ! Small waves only wash out weak hands !
The BIG trend or picture never changes easily ! So enjoy the riding process of the BIG wave ! At the same time, just watch how the waves are changing !
It's just so FUN and so BEAUTIFUL !
Some previous followups and comments on CLFD can be found here.
To be able to make big money in this "investment" game, there is only one way: sit tight when you are correct with the BIG trend ! Small waves only wash out weak hands !
The BIG trend or picture never changes easily ! So enjoy the riding process of the BIG wave ! At the same time, just watch how the waves are changing !
It's just so FUN and so BEAUTIFUL !
I miss you guys and the blog
I miss you guys and the blog since I have been on a busy business travel for the past few days.
Fortunately, We didn't miss the bullish run up for the past few days, which is more important !
The most important thing is to change your thinking now, if you are still acting as a bear like last year, namely 2008.
Two important forecasts and predictions in the past have been listed below:
If I think there is a need to modify or update my market views, I will post them in the blog as soon as possible.
Another nice thing about the blog, you can schedule your posts ! pretty neat ! I love it!
Enjoy the day !
Fortunately, We didn't miss the bullish run up for the past few days, which is more important !
The most important thing is to change your thinking now, if you are still acting as a bear like last year, namely 2008.
Two important forecasts and predictions in the past have been listed below:
If I think there is a need to modify or update my market views, I will post them in the blog as soon as possible.
Another nice thing about the blog, you can schedule your posts ! pretty neat ! I love it!
Enjoy the day !
GS - a leading indictor of the market
Please refer to the chart below. See how GS is a flag of Bulls and how it lead us up all the way.
Please notice GS's up trend has started from last December. Then BAC and JPM starts to run up from March ! Then the UP wave is spreaded to other financial stocks.
Please notice GS's up trend has started from last December. Then BAC and JPM starts to run up from March ! Then the UP wave is spreaded to other financial stocks.
How amazing the bulls can hold DNDN for so long
How amazing the bulls can hold DNDN for so long at high prices ! This is a good chart to learn how a stock can runs up ! So don't worry too much about selling at the top ! The top can be formed for a long time. The key is to find a real stock who can have a bullish run !
BAC - a short review
From the chart below, you may see the bottom is formed, and then confirmed later.
For a thread on BAC's charts, the link is here.
For a thread on BAC's charts, the link is here.
LVS - the beautiful V in the chart
LVS - the beautiful V in the chart, what a nice application of my simple symmetry principle for the chart reading. Please find the symmetry principle in the technical analysis tips part.
My current US stock market view and predictions
Over the weekend, I have studied the past 40 years, how the bulls performed and how the bears performed using my own systematic analysis. Based on such statistics, I have drawn the following important conclusions, I am using S&P 500 as an example:
- If we can see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 can continue for another year, at least. This will be a very good bull market. Very similar to those bull market 1995 --> 2000 and 2003 --> 2007, for example.
- If we can not see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 will be over in the end of 2010 or early 2011.
Nevertheless, Please notice that the above conclusions are just based purely on my systematic statistical study on the US stock market behavior over the past 40 years. It may be wrong, even though the probability for being wrong is only 1%.
I will refer back to these important conclusions later as time is passing, no matter it is correct or wrong. Just to learn something from the market !
Put your bet with your analysis and your hypothesis, and let the market tell you if you are right or wrong ! It's a fun game, indeed, very fun game.
A chart to review - MGM
A nice chart to review and learn from it -MGM
Once the trend is reversed, it follow the symmetry rule to go back ! Very nice !
Once the trend is reversed, it follow the symmetry rule to go back ! Very nice !
What are the bears' view on the current stock market
First of all, I am a bull, until the chart shows me clearly the selling signal, I will not become a bear. I just need to follow the market trend, no matter how irrational the market is ! I strongly believe there are natural laws governing the market motion, but it may be not well understood by human now. As a result, one missing reasoning will puzzle us very easily. That's why you think the market is irrational. But, in fact, the market is very rational and smart ! The key is we, human beings, can't really understand millions of reasons behind the market movement.
However, my mind is always OPEN to other opinions because this is related to real money. One mistake could kill us very easily in the market.
Here are some bears market view, I want to share here:
However, my mind is always OPEN to other opinions because this is related to real money. One mistake could kill us very easily in the market.
Here are some bears market view, I want to share here:
- Market will find a top in September
- Bears expect the stock market will crash again until the end of 2010.
Most bears reasoning are based on economic conditions analysis, very few of them are using the chart reading.
At the same time, bears are bullish on US dollars since dollar is strong during last market crash.
As expected before, ETFC's gap
will not be filled for some time. So far, 3 days passed, the gap is still open.
This is a very good sign ! The previous post is linked here.
The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.
It would be very interesting to learn how long the gap can be held well
This is a very good sign ! The previous post is linked here.
The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.
It would be very interesting to learn how long the gap can be held well
What a nice day for Bulls again
What a nice day for Bulls again today
S&P 500 make a new higher high of 1044.14 today !
Only Dow Jones Industrial Average is left to beat the previous high of 9,666.71! I think It will make a new higher high soon !
Please change your mind, follow the trend, it's a bull's market !!
Every market correction will be a good buying in opportunity ! I will follow the market very closely here. Once I see some warning signs for the Bulls, I will inform you guys here !
Think about this, if NASDAQ stands well above 2000, S&P 500 stands well above 1000, these numbers are magic numbers, the market won't stop there for sure !
Fortunately, we have spotted this magic bullish run up since March ! I sincerely hope you do as well, at least, didn't short the market at the March's bottom !
Please recall my post on April 26 to learn, which is quoted here " It is a good time to learn how to know a rally is a Bull starts or still Bear reactions ..... "
Again, keep in mind that:
A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !
The big money only can be made through sitting tight when you are right !
I wish I still hold BAC which is bought at about 3 now.
S&P 500 make a new higher high of 1044.14 today !
Only Dow Jones Industrial Average is left to beat the previous high of 9,666.71! I think It will make a new higher high soon !
Please change your mind, follow the trend, it's a bull's market !!
Every market correction will be a good buying in opportunity ! I will follow the market very closely here. Once I see some warning signs for the Bulls, I will inform you guys here !
Think about this, if NASDAQ stands well above 2000, S&P 500 stands well above 1000, these numbers are magic numbers, the market won't stop there for sure !
Fortunately, we have spotted this magic bullish run up since March ! I sincerely hope you do as well, at least, didn't short the market at the March's bottom !
Please recall my post on April 26 to learn, which is quoted here " It is a good time to learn how to know a rally is a Bull starts or still Bear reactions ..... "
Again, keep in mind that:
A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !
The big money only can be made through sitting tight when you are right !
I wish I still hold BAC which is bought at about 3 now.
Nasdaq made a new higher high today
Nasdaq made a new higher high today 2,066.34 !
What a day today !
Some people still think this is a bear market rally and think the rally or bullish run is irrational !
However, what I want to say is:
One thing is for sure: A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !
For example, the Bear market from 2007, ends until March 2009, it takes more than one year. So this Bull's market since March 2009, will probably end some time beyond 2010.
Some friends may ask what will happen after this pushing up wave ? I already posted before in only 15 points to my predicted target.
I quote it here again:
"Form a new no-trend zone, and destroy completely Bear's hope !"
the no-trend zone is the same as trap-zone.
So, you know a trap-zone is expected after the Bull's money-making zone is completed.
What a day today !
Some people still think this is a bear market rally and think the rally or bullish run is irrational !
However, what I want to say is:
- Yes, there is a reason for market's up and down. But you probably don't know it now.
- When you know the reason, understand the reason, and think the market's move is very reasonable, so you jump in. Man, probably, you are too later
One thing is for sure: A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !
For example, the Bear market from 2007, ends until March 2009, it takes more than one year. So this Bull's market since March 2009, will probably end some time beyond 2010.
Some friends may ask what will happen after this pushing up wave ? I already posted before in only 15 points to my predicted target.
I quote it here again:
"Form a new no-trend zone, and destroy completely Bear's hope !"
the no-trend zone is the same as trap-zone.
So, you know a trap-zone is expected after the Bull's money-making zone is completed.
Another beautiful day for bulls
Another beautiful day for bulls today !
Every time, after the market correction, or the trap-zone in the language of my own theory, the market will be pushed up for a new higher high! That's typical since March this year. It is also typical for a bull market!
Let's see this time if a new higher high will be made. Put your bet, and crossing your figures!
Following the market trend is so wonderful !
Every time, after the market correction, or the trap-zone in the language of my own theory, the market will be pushed up for a new higher high! That's typical since March this year. It is also typical for a bull market!
Let's see this time if a new higher high will be made. Put your bet, and crossing your figures!
Following the market trend is so wonderful !
ETFC - very good day
ETFC - very good day today !
I am expecting today's gap up won't be filled for some time.
I have started following ETFC from the beginning of August, 2009, when ETFC is around 1.40. Here is the chart I posted in the blog.
The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.
I am expecting today's gap up won't be filled for some time.
I have started following ETFC from the beginning of August, 2009, when ETFC is around 1.40. Here is the chart I posted in the blog.
The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.
What a bullish day today !
What a bullish day today !
I know some friends are still bearish on the market because they don't know how to follow the trend ! I wish they have read my grand view on the market.
The rally from March is not a bear market rally, but, indeed, a new bull market !
Never fight with the trend, but follow it !
I know some friends are still bearish on the market because they don't know how to follow the trend ! I wish they have read my grand view on the market.
The rally from March is not a bear market rally, but, indeed, a new bull market !
Never fight with the trend, but follow it !
JAZZ - up 20-fold in 5 Months
JAZZ - a 20-fold in about half year.
Below is the review chart !
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
Below is the review chart !
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
VVTV - climbed more than 17-fold in half year
VVTV - climbed more than 17-fold in half year.
Below is the chart for review.
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
Below is the chart for review.
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
SCSS - a 15-fold in about half year
SCSS - a 15-fold in about half year, below is the review chart !
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.
GIGM - review chart
Below is a GIGM review chart:
- 50/250 golden cross three times forming a round bottom
- Then kiss three times before hit the all time high
- The 50/250 death cross marked the new DOWN trend.
Other technical analysis tips are linked here.
Some key points to watch a stock price development
The stock price development is a pretty complex thing in nature due to many uncertainties and unknown events. But, still, there are some clues to understand how it is moving and why. It's very similar to treat a sick people as a doctor. One important thing is to remember: dynamics
In addition, don't just rely on some simple rules. Combinations of many tools are much more helpful and reliable.
Below is a short list of key points I always keep watching:
In addition, don't just rely on some simple rules. Combinations of many tools are much more helpful and reliable.
Below is a short list of key points I always keep watching:
- 50MA and 250MA (the positions, movements, etc.)
- trap-zones vs. money-making zones
- chart patterns
- price relative positions
- previous substantial waves (UP or DOWN)
SPPI - a nice breakout and run chart
SPPI - a nice breakout and run chart to review please note the following key points (other breakout charts are also linked)
- Gap ups
- 50 and 250 MA
- V bottom line
- /\ top line
- trap -zone and money-making zones
ETFC - the bottom line
Below, the read line in the chart is ETFC's bottom line for the bulls.
Previous posts on ETFC can be found here.
Previous posts on ETFC can be found here.
The unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent in August
which is a 26-year high.
But the market is still in green. Pretty good !
But the market is still in green. Pretty good !
Grand view of the current stock market: S&P500 as an example
Many people got lost in the market up and downs, especially after some measurable moves. Fears and greedy desires are coming up very very easily. But if you apply my unique stock price development model, which can be found here if you are new to it, you can easily grasp the market's motion and quickly understand why the market is moving this way, not that way!
Below is a daily chart for S&P500, which is perfect for today's grand view on the current US stock market. Below I will list several key conclusions based on my unique stock price development model and theory:
Below is a daily chart for S&P500, which is perfect for today's grand view on the current US stock market. Below I will list several key conclusions based on my unique stock price development model and theory:
- Since 2000, and actually until now, the US market is forming a perfect trap-zone
- Technically, this trap-zone has been completed, just wait for the confirmation
- We are partly in the Bull's money-making zone, this Bull's money making zone will make a new higher high, if the upper boundary of the trap-zone is broken out successfully
- The dynamics of the trap-zone is the leading force for this range of the market motion
Beautiful yet powerful symmetry principle - GIGM as an example
Previously, I have mentioned the powerful symmetry principle for several times. Here is a beautiful chart of GIGM to demonstrate the power of it:
- From ~2002 to ~2004, a trap-zone is formed
- Broken out of the trap-zone signals a reliable trend reversal
- Then GIGM goes up with ~ 2000% gain in several years, forming a symmetry round circle line
SVA - a typical stock price development chart
SVA - a typical stock price development chart need to study well
Previous SVA charts, analysis, and snapshots are listed here.
- accumulation stage: from 0.75 - 1.02
- push up stages
- the previous V bottom line is the life line for the bullish run
- 250 MA is another key
- The topping process is very interesting
Previous SVA charts, analysis, and snapshots are listed here.
Gap down - a sign of weakness
Gap down - a sign of weakness
Gap down is an effective sign of weakness of bulls, especially closed down that day, if you apply it to the daily chart.
It is especially useful for a straight gap up move ( at least 3 gap ups in a row) in a almost 90 degree angle ! Once the gap down appears after a gap up, especially with a close down, then a measurable retreat is coming. A real example is ETFC, please refer to the following chart.
Other technical analysis tips can be found here as well.
Gap down is an effective sign of weakness of bulls, especially closed down that day, if you apply it to the daily chart.
It is especially useful for a straight gap up move ( at least 3 gap ups in a row) in a almost 90 degree angle ! Once the gap down appears after a gap up, especially with a close down, then a measurable retreat is coming. A real example is ETFC, please refer to the following chart.
Other technical analysis tips can be found here as well.
A reply to the comments
Recently, a friend has the following comment:
"based on your theory, there are two dimensions, time and price move. Yes, you predicted the down-up-down move, but that is only one dimension. with different time dimensions, what you predicted can be right or wrong. What is more important, without knowing the time dimension, even though we know the price dimension will be down-up-down wave, we still don't know how to trade since we don't know when is the pivot point."
Here is my reply:
Please keep in mind that any recommendations and revealed trades may be paper trading without real money involved. So trading stocks at your own decision since only you can control the RISK of your own trades."
At least, the combination and correlation of the trap-zone and money-making zone has been clearly demonstrated.
"based on your theory, there are two dimensions, time and price move. Yes, you predicted the down-up-down move, but that is only one dimension. with different time dimensions, what you predicted can be right or wrong. What is more important, without knowing the time dimension, even though we know the price dimension will be down-up-down wave, we still don't know how to trade since we don't know when is the pivot point."
Here is my reply:
- All my analysis and predictions are free and just for sharing my market watch purpose. How to take advantage of it is your job.
- I have more than 5 trading and investment accounts to take care of, which is my first priority. So my market watch sharing may be not very quick. Please just read them for fun or try to learn how to follow the market trend, how to analyze the market. But don't follow my trading. Please read the "Disclaimer and Notice" at the end of the page, which is quoted below
Please keep in mind that any recommendations and revealed trades may be paper trading without real money involved. So trading stocks at your own decision since only you can control the RISK of your own trades."
- For the time dimension, I have some theory and rules to analyze them, for example, symmetry principle, magic number theory, etc. It's far more complex to explain in several sentences. It's extremely hard to understand and master also. I will share more on that when I feel it is ready to do so.
- With this sentence "with different time dimensions, what you predicted can be right or wrong." I think you are totally lost in my theory. You'd better read them again, especially read with the chart. The beauty of my stock price movement model is its distinct conclusion on the market movement. Otherwise, it is not applicable at all.
At least, the combination and correlation of the trap-zone and money-making zone has been clearly demonstrated.
The stock market just moves as predicted before
The stock market just moves as predicted before !
I quote some words from Last week's post below:
"Usually, this is not good for the bulls, especially when the Nasdaq market breaks down ~1990 again. "
Now we are in the DOWN wave, as I expected after the DOWN and UP waves.
The first target of this DOWN wave is to hit the 50MA ....
I quote some words from Last week's post below:
"Usually, this is not good for the bulls, especially when the Nasdaq market breaks down ~1990 again. "
"Currently, the market is in the stage of the UP, and I am expecting a DOWN wave to come once this UP wave is completed ! "
Now we are in the DOWN wave, as I expected after the DOWN and UP waves.
The first target of this DOWN wave is to hit the 50MA ....
A typical stock top pattern - STAR
Please notice that:
- Divergence for the top
- V bottom line broken down
- Transition of the trap-zone
ETFC - measurable retreat
This is a very measurable retreat in ETFC. If you sold it at above 1.80 then bought back at 1.50. You didn't lose your shares but gain 30 cents per share. Very good opportunity to reduce your position cost to zero.
Once you see a V is forming, and smell that the V bottom line will be broken down, then take your profits first since such patterns will surely let you buy back at much lower prices.
The gap up is almost filled today. For more ETFC analysis and predictions, please follow the link here.
Once you see a V is forming, and smell that the V bottom line will be broken down, then take your profits first since such patterns will surely let you buy back at much lower prices.
The gap up is almost filled today. For more ETFC analysis and predictions, please follow the link here.
Important top and bottom chart signs
For the top signs, make sure that the price can immediately drop for a measurable amount after you sell.
- double heads M pattern
- V pattern bottom line is broken down with new lower low
- divergence for the top
- Wait to sell at about or above the V pattern bottom line, when the price is in a UP wave
For the bottoms signs, make sure that the price can immediately climb up for a measurable amount after you buy.
- double or multiple bottom W pattern
- /\ (the reversal V) pattern top line is broken out with new high higher
- divergence for the bottom
- wait to buy at about or below the /\ pattern top line, when the price is in a DOWN wave
The KEY is to buy a stock when it is at the end of a DOWN wave, and to sell a stock when it is at the end of a UP wave.
SVA - 5 days chart
This is a nice chart to learn how a stock moves sharply ....
Previous SVA analysis, predictions, and other charts can be found here as well.
Previous SVA analysis, predictions, and other charts can be found here as well.
CLFD - Follow up 2 (up more than 9% today)
CLFD climbs up more than 9% today with impressive volume !
CLFD has been added to our 10 baggers' list for some time when it is around ~1.10.
To date, it is up almost 300%.
Isn't it wonderful !
Previous analysis can be found here.
CLFD has been added to our 10 baggers' list for some time when it is around ~1.10.
To date, it is up almost 300%.
Isn't it wonderful !
Previous analysis can be found here.
SVA - the predicted target has been achieved
SVA is up more than 40% today ! See the chart below.
I also list below two previous calls on SVA.
Other breakout charts and stocks are available here.
I also list below two previous calls on SVA.
Other breakout charts and stocks are available here.
What a nice day for ETFC so far
Last Friday, I called the nice gap up of ETFC.
And, today, you see the power of the gap up already !
My systematic analysis of ETFC and other stocks with chart gallery can be found here.
Great day !
And, today, you see the power of the gap up already !
My systematic analysis of ETFC and other stocks with chart gallery can be found here.
Great day !
Stock Top Detectors -1 (ETFC as an example)
Below is a chart for the top of ETFC. From it we can learn how a stock finds its top.
I have listed the following as stock top detectors:
I have listed the following as stock top detectors:
- trap-zone
- 50 MA
- 250MA
- Down bar strength
- Up bar strength
- Down wave strength
- Up wave strength
Other technical analysis tips can be found here.
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