I have listed the following as stock top detectors:
- trap-zone
- 50 MA
- 250MA
- Down bar strength
- Up bar strength
- Down wave strength
- Up wave strength
Other technical analysis tips can be found here.
Stock Top Detectors -1 (ETFC as an example)
Below is a chart for the top of ETFC. From it we can learn how a stock finds its top.
I have listed the following as stock top detectors:
I have listed the following as stock top detectors:
what I have learned from the high-frequency trading
what I have learned from the high-frequency trading
- powerful computers and algorithms to trade at lightning-fast speeds
- holds relatively few positions by the time market closes for the day
- never use leverage
- favors stocks that are the most heavily traded
- to minimize risk by trading quickly in and out of the market, as well as through hedging
- focuses on hiring top computer programmers, technicians, and traders, such as Getco
- understand how electronic markets work
Stock Bottom Detectors - 1 (TKO as an example)
Below is a chart for important bottom patterns:
- Relative strength and position of the UP and DOWN waves
- trap-zone transition and the 50MA
- 50 MA and 250 MA
- Volume spikes
- MACD
- Multiple bottoms
- Straight UP pole with descending triangle but without broken down
TKO shoots up 600% in one Month after found the bottom.
A list of other related technical analysis tips can be found here.
ETFC - a very nice gap up today
I have added ETFC to successful break out chart gallery and plan to follow it closely
For some previous analysis on ETFC, please refer to the link above or the list below:
For some previous analysis on ETFC, please refer to the link above or the list below:
Trap-zone moved in 2 dimensions now
Trap-zone moved in 2 dimensions now. Yesterday, it is only moving in the time dimension, but today it is also moving in the price dimension. Actually, it expanded the lower boundary !
Usually, this is not good for the bulls, especially when the Nasdaq market breaks down ~1990 again.
So stay alert !
Please review my previous forecast and prediction just one Month ago. When looking back, you will sure learn something !
Currently, the market is in the stage of the UP, and I am expecting a DOWN wave to come once this UP wave is completed !
It is exactly in the predicted order DOWN-UP-DOWN.
TYPE follow up
TYPE has been UP more than 430% since March's low. Very nice run up!
It is first added to the 10 bagger stock watch list on May 4, 2009.
Since then I have followed up it several times in the blog, especially when its EPS beats.
Other related stock breakout plays and chart development can be found here.
It is first added to the 10 bagger stock watch list on May 4, 2009.
Since then I have followed up it several times in the blog, especially when its EPS beats.
Other related stock breakout plays and chart development can be found here.
CLFD - follow up
CLFD has been in our 10 baggers' list for some time when it is around ~1.10. To date, it is up almost 250%, using today's high of ~ 2.74.
Even in a DOWN day like today, it is shooting up more than 10% without any news !
Some past analysis and predictions with regard to CLFD:
Even in a DOWN day like today, it is shooting up more than 10% without any news !
Some past analysis and predictions with regard to CLFD:
Yesterday's trap zone is moving today
Yesterday's trap zone is moving today, please refer to the chart below. The green box is the trap-zone, which is already drawn yesterday.
The moving is along the time dimension, just one kind of the common trap-zone dynamics.
After the trap-zone, again, there will be a money-making zone, which could happen as soon as tomorrow !
Two points to watch closely:
The moving is along the time dimension, just one kind of the common trap-zone dynamics.
After the trap-zone, again, there will be a money-making zone, which could happen as soon as tomorrow !
Two points to watch closely:
- ~2015
- ~2040
I still keep my previous predictions and outlooks, which have been posted here before.
A gambler's heart - 2
Trading is not gambling, so a trader is not a gambler !
Would you like to think yourself a gambler or a trader ? Look inside your heart, and think this question for a while ?
Humans thinking, emotion, and reaction to money losses and gains are very very complex and super hard to grasp and quantify. That's why there is a subject called "behavioral finance", many smart people and big investment banks have fully dedicated to this research area. Their goal is to take advantage of common people's mistakes, especially the stupid gamblers' hearts !
Therefore, we need to avoid such bad habits. You know, sometimes, we just can't notice we have bad habits. Sometimes, even we notice them, we just emotionally can not overcome it because it is so painful to overcome it.
For example, human nature makes us very very happy to take "paper"profits in each trade very quickly, but, procrastinate when it comes to realizing "paper" losses.
The big question is "WHY" ?
Because if we close the trade and realize the "paper" loss, we finally lose the hope to break even in that trade. So, it's so painful for human to cut loss quick ! Because they will lose the so called "hope" once the loss is cut !
But, in reality, the "HOPE" associated with a paper loss is, in general, a big trap to make you lose more and more !
On the other hand, the "happiness" associated with a quick paper gain realization is , generally speaking, a trap also.
So, we need to set up rules for selling and buying, and then acting according to the rules, not the emotions. But, the rules may be bad, may be good ! So, we need to learn more and to learn how to set up good rules.
Would you like to think yourself a gambler or a trader ? Look inside your heart, and think this question for a while ?
Humans thinking, emotion, and reaction to money losses and gains are very very complex and super hard to grasp and quantify. That's why there is a subject called "behavioral finance", many smart people and big investment banks have fully dedicated to this research area. Their goal is to take advantage of common people's mistakes, especially the stupid gamblers' hearts !
Therefore, we need to avoid such bad habits. You know, sometimes, we just can't notice we have bad habits. Sometimes, even we notice them, we just emotionally can not overcome it because it is so painful to overcome it.
For example, human nature makes us very very happy to take "paper"profits in each trade very quickly, but, procrastinate when it comes to realizing "paper" losses.
The big question is "WHY" ?
Because if we close the trade and realize the "paper" loss, we finally lose the hope to break even in that trade. So, it's so painful for human to cut loss quick ! Because they will lose the so called "hope" once the loss is cut !
But, in reality, the "HOPE" associated with a paper loss is, in general, a big trap to make you lose more and more !
On the other hand, the "happiness" associated with a quick paper gain realization is , generally speaking, a trap also.
So, we need to set up rules for selling and buying, and then acting according to the rules, not the emotions. But, the rules may be bad, may be good ! So, we need to learn more and to learn how to set up good rules.
Remember the big picture I talked last week ?
Remember the big picture I talked last week ? The link to the post is here.
Before doing any analysis, today, I want to review what I have fore casted before last week.
One key number I have mentioned there is ~2015, see below for the quoted words:
Before doing any analysis, today, I want to review what I have fore casted before last week.
One key number I have mentioned there is ~2015, see below for the quoted words:
- The upper boundary is ~2015
Now this number 2015 becomes very important for future market development !
Once it is breakout, retest it is a MUST, and 100% sure thing. You can see clearly the market has retested it yesterday and then bounced back !
Please try to understand such market movements because the KEY to make money even in short term market movement is to GRASP such SURE movements.
Will ~2015 hold the market or fail ? You may want to ask this question. If you do think about it, you are trapped by the market ! why ? Because only the market can make its own decision ! Don't have a maybe wrong or maybe right assumption ahead even though you have all analysis to support your assumption, that's basically a GAMBLING, not the right way to make money in this market !
What I can tell you is, Keep an eye on ~2015 now, once it is broken down, a market reaction will come, which is already predicted before after this UP wave. On the other hand, if 2015 holds well, looking forward to a new higher high about ~2065 first !
Cheers !
CBOU - follow up -1
Below is a follow up chart for CBOU.
A crazy bull never stops! It clearly show the power of the market trend !
It is heading to 10 now.
For previous analysis on CBOU, please follow the link.
A crazy bull never stops! It clearly show the power of the market trend !
It is heading to 10 now.
For previous analysis on CBOU, please follow the link.
what a great day for bulls so far
what a great day for bulls so far !
My predicted target for QID to 20 and FAZ to 2, ie. 20 after the wonderful reverse split, will soon be realized.
Although there are some fluctuations, but the price of QID and FAZ is gradually moving towards the target. That's the power of the market trend !
Market trend is very very powerful, even it is slow it can show the unique power through the time.
Feel it, learn it, and grasp it. That's the beautiful truth about trading !
My predicted target for QID to 20 and FAZ to 2, ie. 20 after the wonderful reverse split, will soon be realized.
Although there are some fluctuations, but the price of QID and FAZ is gradually moving towards the target. That's the power of the market trend !
Market trend is very very powerful, even it is slow it can show the unique power through the time.
Feel it, learn it, and grasp it. That's the beautiful truth about trading !
Time fames - a reply to a comment
I have a comment from a reader, quoted below, I think the question is good for all readers, so I plan to give my brief answers here:
Question: "Tiger, thank you for the good work, in terms of time frames, we have daily, hrly, 30m, 15m, 10m, 5m etc. Based on your experience, under which timeframe, your theory would work the best? "
Answer: My theory works good and great for all time frames. If you select a short time frame, you have to trade very often, you have to keep your eye on the market all the time because the market can change very quickly and very dramatically in short time frame. On the other hand, if you choose a longer time scale, no need to watch the market very often because the signal will change slowly.
It all depends on your trading style.
I personally using daily and 30 m chart to trade.
My strategy is:
Question: "Tiger, thank you for the good work, in terms of time frames, we have daily, hrly, 30m, 15m, 10m, 5m etc. Based on your experience, under which timeframe, your theory would work the best? "
Answer: My theory works good and great for all time frames. If you select a short time frame, you have to trade very often, you have to keep your eye on the market all the time because the market can change very quickly and very dramatically in short time frame. On the other hand, if you choose a longer time scale, no need to watch the market very often because the signal will change slowly.
It all depends on your trading style.
I personally using daily and 30 m chart to trade.
My strategy is:
- build up a position based on the daily chart signal
- trade frequently based on the 15 m chart in order to reduce the cost of the initial position to zero
- once the daily chart said a big correction is anticipated to happen, or even worse, a trend reversal is going to happen, then I will position myself to follow the coming trend and close longs and set up short-selling positions
A gambler's heart -1
Trading is not gambling, so a trader is not a gambler !
Most traders that I met never thought they are gambling. They really think they are trading, and trading with skills. However, after studying what they are thinking about a trade, including myself. I have found some very common yet misleading thoughts, usually, a typical gambler's heart !
The most common feature of such gambler's heart is never face the market itself, never treat the market very carefully. They just prejudge the market's movement and development and trade according to their assumptions, even though the market already already show them they are wrong.
They never follow the market's trend ! Instead, they just bet against it because they have prejudged the market and they are following their assumptions, even though the market already showed them clearly that they are wrong.
This is very very dangerous. Even they can win BIG previously, sooner or later, the market will teach them a hard lesson !
For example, some gamblers have hold the short positions from March with a BIG LOSS until now, and hope to gain back in one day later finally. Even if they win finally, this is not GOOD at all, because it is just gambling, not trading. Sooner or later, Mr. market will wipe out those gamblers.
Another example, some gamblers keep shorting the market from March until now, even though every time they have to CUT LOSS again and again. But the cutting loss seems can not change their gambler's mind !
In one sentence, it's a gambling if you are not follow the market !
Most traders that I met never thought they are gambling. They really think they are trading, and trading with skills. However, after studying what they are thinking about a trade, including myself. I have found some very common yet misleading thoughts, usually, a typical gambler's heart !
The most common feature of such gambler's heart is never face the market itself, never treat the market very carefully. They just prejudge the market's movement and development and trade according to their assumptions, even though the market already already show them they are wrong.
They never follow the market's trend ! Instead, they just bet against it because they have prejudged the market and they are following their assumptions, even though the market already showed them clearly that they are wrong.
This is very very dangerous. Even they can win BIG previously, sooner or later, the market will teach them a hard lesson !
For example, some gamblers have hold the short positions from March with a BIG LOSS until now, and hope to gain back in one day later finally. Even if they win finally, this is not GOOD at all, because it is just gambling, not trading. Sooner or later, Mr. market will wipe out those gamblers.
Another example, some gamblers keep shorting the market from March until now, even though every time they have to CUT LOSS again and again. But the cutting loss seems can not change their gambler's mind !
In one sentence, it's a gambling if you are not follow the market !
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