Tiger Gao Market Watch: 09/06/2009

My current US stock market view and predictions

Over the weekend, I have studied the past 40 years, how the bulls performed and how the bears performed using my own systematic analysis. Based on such statistics, I have drawn the following important conclusions, I am using S&P 500 as an example:

If we can see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 can continue for another year, at least. This will be a very good bull market. Very similar to those bull market 1995 --> 2000 and 2003 --> 2007, for example.
If we can not see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 will be over in the end of 2010 or early 2011.

Nevertheless, Please notice that the above conclusions are just based purely on my systematic statistical study on the US stock market behavior over the past 40 years. It may be wrong, even though the probability for being wrong is only 1%.

I will refer back to these important conclusions later as time is passing, no matter it is correct or wrong. Just to learn something from the market !

Put your bet with your analysis and your hypothesis, and let the market tell you if you are right or wrong ! It's a fun game, indeed, very fun game.

A chart to review - MGM

A nice chart to review and learn from it -MGM

Once the trend is reversed, it follow the symmetry rule to go back ! Very nice !

What are the bears' view on the current stock market

First of all, I am a bull, until the chart shows me clearly the selling signal, I will not become a bear. I just need to follow the market trend, no matter how irrational the market is ! I strongly believe there are natural laws governing the market motion, but it may be not well understood by human now. As a result, one missing reasoning will puzzle us very easily. That's why you think the market is irrational. But, in fact, the market is very rational and smart ! The key is we, human beings, can't really understand millions of reasons behind the market movement.

However, my mind is always OPEN to other opinions because this is related to real money. One mistake could kill us very easily in the market.

Here are some bears market view, I want to share here:

Market will find a top in September
Bears expect the stock market will crash again until the end of 2010.

Most bears reasoning are based on economic conditions analysis, very few of them are using the chart reading.

At the same time, bears are bullish on US dollars since dollar is strong during last market crash.

As expected before, ETFC's gap

will not be filled for some time. So far, 3 days passed, the gap is still open.

This is a very good sign ! The previous post is linked here.

The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.

It would be very interesting to learn how long the gap can be held well

What a nice day for Bulls again

What a nice day for Bulls again today

S&P 500 make a new higher high of 1044.14 today !

Only Dow Jones Industrial Average is left to beat the previous high of 9,666.71! I think It will make a new higher high soon !

Please change your mind, follow the trend, it's a bull's market !!

Every market correction will be a good buying in opportunity ! I will follow the market very closely here. Once I see some warning signs for the Bulls, I will inform you guys here !

Think about this, if NASDAQ stands well above 2000, S&P 500 stands well above 1000, these numbers are magic numbers, the market won't stop there for sure !

Fortunately, we have spotted this magic bullish run up since March ! I sincerely hope you do as well, at least, didn't short the market at the March's bottom !

Please recall my post on April 26 to learn, which is quoted here " It is a good time to learn how to know a rally is a Bull starts or still Bear reactions ..... "

Again, keep in mind that:

A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !

The big money only can be made through sitting tight when you are right !

I wish I still hold BAC which is bought at about 3 now.

Nasdaq made a new higher high today

Nasdaq made a new higher high today 2,066.34 !

What a day today !

Some people still think this is a bear market rally and think the rally or bullish run is irrational !

However, what I want to say is:

Yes, there is a reason for market's up and down. But you probably don't know it now.
When you know the reason, understand the reason, and think the market's move is very reasonable, so you jump in. Man, probably, you are too later

There is no reasoning for trading the market ! Just follow the trend and sit tight until the big trend is going to be reversed!

One thing is for sure: A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !

For example, the Bear market from 2007, ends until March 2009, it takes more than one year. So this Bull's market since March 2009, will probably end some time beyond 2010.

Some friends may ask what will happen after this pushing up wave ? I already posted before in only 15 points to my predicted target.

I quote it here again:

"Form a new no-trend zone, and destroy completely Bear's hope !"

the no-trend zone is the same as trap-zone.

So, you know a trap-zone is expected after the Bull's money-making zone is completed.

Another beautiful day for bulls

Another beautiful day for bulls today !

Every time, after the market correction, or the trap-zone in the language of my own theory, the market will be pushed up for a new higher high! That's typical since March this year. It is also typical for a bull market!

Let's see this time if a new higher high will be made. Put your bet, and crossing your figures!

Following the market trend is so wonderful !

ETFC - very good day

ETFC - very good day today !

I am expecting today's gap up won't be filled for some time.

I have started following ETFC from the beginning of August, 2009, when ETFC is around 1.40. Here is the chart I posted in the blog.

The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.

What a bullish day today !

What a bullish day today !

I know some friends are still bearish on the market because they don't know how to follow the trend ! I wish they have read my grand view on the market.

The rally from March is not a bear market rally, but, indeed, a new bull market !

Never fight with the trend, but follow it !