江恩买卖十二法则

江恩最后一本重要著作是1949年出版的《在华尔街45年》,书中江恩理论坦诚披露几十年来,在市场取胜之道。
江恩认为,投资者在市场买卖遭受损失,主要的原因有三点:
1) 在有限资本上过度买卖。
2) 投资者未有设止蚀盘以控制损失。
3) 缺乏市场知识,这是在市场买卖中损失的最重要原因。

因此,江恩对所有投资者的忠告是:在你赔钱之前,请先细心研究市场。
在入市之前,投资者一定要了解:
1) 你可能会作出错误的买卖决定;
2) 你必须知道,如何去处理错误;
3) 出入市必须根据一套既定的规则,永不盲目猜测市况发展。
4) 市场条件及时间经常转变,投资者必须学习跟随市况转变。在不同时间循环及市场条件下,市场历史会重复发生的。

这些虽然是老生常谈,但配合江恩提供的十二条重要买卖规则,江恩理论便可发挥威力。
江恩总结45年在华尔街投资买卖的经验,写成十二条买卖规则,重要性不言而喻,现列于以供参考。

一 决定趋势
二 在单底,双底或三底水平入市买入
三 根据市场波动的百分比买卖
四 根据三星期上升或下跌买卖

江恩在设计他的第四条买卖规则时,对金融市场做了十分广泛的统计,他将市场反弹或调整的买卖归纳为两点:
1) 当市场主流趋势向上时,若市价出现三周的调整,是一个买入的时机。
2) 当市场的主流趋势向下时,若市价出现三周的反弹,是一个沽出的时机。

当市场逆趋势出现调整或反弹时,江恩认为在以下的时间必须留意市势的发展:
1) 当市场上升或下跌超过30天时,下一个留意市势见顶或见底的时间应为6至7星期。
2) 若市场反弹或调整超过45天至49天时,下一个需要留意的时间应为60至65天,根据江恩的经验,60至65天为一个逆市反弹或调整的最大平均时间的幅度。

五 市场分段波动
六 根据五或七点上落买卖

1) 若趋势是上升的话,则当市场出现5至7点的调整时,可作趁低吸纳,通常情况下,市场调整不会超过9至10点。
2) 若趋势是向下的话,则当市场出现5至7点的反弹时,可趁高沽空。
3) 在某些情况下,10至12点的反弹或调整,亦是入市的机会。
4) 若市场由顶部或底部反弹或调整18至21点水平时,投资者要小心市场可能出现短期市势逆转。

七 成交量

第一,当市场接近顶部的时候,成交量经常大增,其理由是:当投资者蜂拥入市的时候,大户或内幕人士则大手派发出货,造成市场成交量大增,当有力人士派货完毕后,坏消息浮现,亦是市场见顶的时候。因此,大成交量经常伴着市场顶部出现。

第二,当市场一直下跌,而成交量续渐缩减的时候,则表示市场抛售力量已近尾声,投资者套现的活动已近完成,市场底部随即出现,而市价反弹亦指日可待。
在利用成交量分析市场趋势逆转的时候,有以下几点规则必须结合应用,可以收预测之效:
1) 时间周期——成交量的分析必须配合市场的时间周期,否则收效减弱。
2) 支持及阻力位——当市场到达重要支持阻力位,而成交量的表现配合见顶或见底的状态时,市势逆转的机会便会增加。

八 时间因素

当市场在上升的趋势中,其调整的时间较之前的一次调整的时间为长,表示这次市场下跌乃是转势。此外,若价位下跌的幅度较之前一次价位高速的幅度为大的话,表示市场已经进入转势阶段。

当市场在下跌的趋势中,若市场反弹的时间第一次超越前一次的反弹时间,表示市势已经逆转。同理,若市场反弹的价位幅度超越前一次反弹的价位幅度,亦表示价位或空间已经超越平衡,转势已经出现。


在市场即将到达转势时间时,通常市势是有迹可寻的。在市场分三至四段浪上升或下跌时候,通常末段升浪无论价位及时间的幅度上都会较前几段浪为短,这现象表示市场的时间循环已近尾声,转势随时出现。

江恩亦认为,金融市场是受季节性特环影响的。因此,只要将注意力集中在一些重要的时间,配合其他买卖规则,投资者可以很快察觉市场趋势的变化。
江恩特别列出,一年之中每月重要的转势时间,非常具有参考价值,现详列如下:

(1)1月7日至10日及1月19日至24日——
上述日子是年初最重要的日子,所出现的趋势可延至多周,甚至多月。
(2)2月3日至10日及2月20日至25日——
上述日子重要性仅次于一月份。
(3)3月20日至27日——
短期转势经常发生,有时甚至是主要的顶部或底部的出现。
(4)4月7日至12日及4月20日至25日——
上述日子较1、2月次要,但后者也经常引发市场转势。
(5)5月3日至10日及5月21日至28日——
5月是十分重要的转势月份,与此同时、2月的重要性相同。
(6)6月10日至15日及6月21日至27日——
短期转势会在此月份出现。
(7)7月7日至10日及7月21日至27日——
7月份的重要性仅次于1月份,在此段时间,气候在年中转化,影响五谷收成,而上市公司亦多在这段时间半年结派息,影响市场活动及资金的流向。
(8)8月5日至8日及8月14日至20日——
8月转势的可能性与2月相同。
(9)9月3日至10日及9月21日至28日——
9月是一年之中最重要的市场转势时候。
(10)10月7日至14日明亮10月21日至30日——
10月份亦是十分重要的市场转势时候。
(11)11月5日至10日及11月20日至30日——
在美国大选年,市场多会在11月初转势,而其他年份,市场多在11月末转势。
(12)12月3日至10日及12月16日至24日——
在圣诞前后,是市场经常出现转势的时候。

在上面所列出的日子中,每月共有两段时间,细心一看,大家便可以明了江恩所提出的市场转势时间,相对于中国历法中的24个节气时间。从天文学角度,乃是以地球为中心来说,太阳行走相隔15度的时间。由此可见,江恩对市场周期的认识,与气候的变化息息相关。

江恩理论认为,要掌握市场转势的时间,除了留意一年里面,多个可能出现转势的时间外,留意一个市场趋势所运行的日数,是异常重要的。
基于对“数字学”的认识,江恩认为市场的趋势是根据数字的阶段运行,当市场趋势运行至某个日数阶段,市场是可能出现转势的。

由市场的重要底部或顶部起计,以下是江恩认为有机会出现转势的日数:
(1)7至12天 (2)18至21天 (3)28至31天
(4)42至49天 (5)57至65天 (6)85至92天
(7)112至120天 (8)150至157天 (9)175至185天
在外汇市场中,最重要的为以下三段时间:
(1) 短期趋势——42至49天;
(2) 中期短势——85至92天;
(3) 中/长期趋势——175至185天。

以美元马克及瑞士法郎的趋势为例,以下是一些引证:
(1) 中期趋势——美元兑瑞士法郎由1992年10月5日1.2085上升至1993年2月15日共上升94天.
(2) 短期趋势——美元兑瑞士法郎由1993年3月5日1.55下跌至5月7日,共44天.
(3) 长期趋势——美元兑马克由1991年12月27日至1992年9月2日两个底部相差共176天.
江恩理论分析的引人入胜之处,乃是江恩对于市场重要顶部或底部所预测的时间都非常准确。

对于所预测的顶底时间,江恩当然在图表分析上下了不少功夫,在他的著作中,他介绍了三种重要的方法,颇值得投资者参考。
第一,江恩认为,将市场数十年来的走势作一统计,研究市场重要的顶部及底部出现的月份,投资者便可以知道市场的顶部及底部会常在哪一个月出现。他特别指出,将趋势所运行的时间与统计的月份作一比较,市场顶部及底部的时间便容易掌握得到。
第二,江恩认为,市场的重要顶部及底部周年的纪念日是必须密切留意的。在他的研究里,市场出现转势,经常会在历史性高低位的月份出现。纪念日的意义是,市场经过重要顶部或底部后的一年、两年,甚至十年,都是重要的时间周期,值得投资者留意。
第三,重要消息的日子,当某些市场消息入市而引致市场大幅波动。例如:战争、金融危机、贬值等,这些日期的周年都要特别留意。此外,分析者要特别留意消息入市时的价位水平,这些水平经常是市场的重要支持或阻力位水平。



九 当出现高低底或新高时买入

1) 当市价开创新高,表示市势向上,可以追市买入。
2) 当市价下破新底,表示市势向下,可以追沽。

不过,在应用上面的简单规则前,江恩认为必须特别留意时间的因素,特别要注意:
1) 由从前顶部到底部的时间;
2) 由从前底部到底部的时间;
3) 由重要顶部到重要底部时间;
4) 由重要底部到重要顶部的时间。

江 恩在这里的规则,言下之意乃是指出,如果市场上创新高或新低,表示趋势未完,投资者可以估计市场下一个转势的时间,这个时间可以从前文所述的“数字学”而 计算。若所预测者为顶部,则可从顶与顶之间的日数或底与顶之间的日数以配合分析;相反,若所预期者为底部,则可从底与底之间及顶与底之间的日数配合分析, 若两者都到达第三的日数,则转势的机会便会大增。
除此之外,市场顶与顶及底与顶之间的时间比率,例如:1倍、1.5倍、2倍等,亦顺理成章成为计算市场下一个重要转势点的依据。


十 决定大市趋势的转向

1.市场假期——江恩认为,市场的趋势逆转,通常会刚刚发生在假期的前后。
对于汇市来说,美国市场主导了其走势,因此要留意的乃是美国假期的前后时间,现罗列如下:
1) 1月3日(新年)
2) 5月10日(美国纪念日)
3) 7月4日(美国独立日)
4) 9月初(劳动日后)
5) 10月10日至14日(哥伦布日)
6) 11月3日至8日(大选年时)
7) 11月25日至30日(感恩节)
8) 12月24日至28日(圣诞节)

从美元到马克1989年至1994年的图表上可见,几个市场转势时间,均与美国假期十分接近:
1) 1988年1月4日美元在新年后转势。
2) 1989年9月劳动日后,美元由2马克急跌至今。
3) 1991年7月5日,美元在独立日后见顶。
4) 1991年圣诞后,美元见底回升。
5) 1993年哥伦节日后,美元由1.59马克急升。

2. 周年纪念日——投资者要留意市场重要顶部及底部的1,2,3,4或5周年之后的日子,市场在这些日子经常会出现转势。

3.趋势运行时间——投资者要留意,由市场重要顶部或底部之后的15,22,34,42,48或49个月的时间,这些时间可能会出现市势逆转。

在价位形态方面,江恩则建议:

1) 升市——当市场处于升市时,可参考江恩的九点图及三天图。若九点图或三天力下破对上一个低位,表示市势逆转的第一个讯号。

2) 跌市——当市场处于跌市时,若九点图或三天图上破对上一个高位,表示市势见底回升的机会十分大。

十一 最安全的买卖点

江恩对于跟随趋势买卖,有以下的忠告:
(1) 当市势向上的时候,追买的价位永远不是太高。
(2) 当市势向下的时候,追沽的价位永远不是太低。
(3) 在投资时紧记使用止蚀盘以免招巨损。
(4) 在顺势买卖,切忌逆势。
(5) 在投资组合中,使用去弱留强的方法维持获利能力。

在投资组合中,使用去弱留强的方法维持获利能力。
至于入市点如何决定,江恩的方法非常传统:在趋势确认后才入市是最为安全的。
在市势向上时,市价见底回升,出现第一个反弹,之后会有调整,当市价无力破底而转头向上,上破第一次反弹的高点的时候,便是最安全的买入点。止蚀位方面,则可设于调整浪底之下。

在市势向下时,市介见顶回落,出现第一次下跌,之后市价反弹,成为第二个较低的顶,当市价再下破第一次下跌的底部时,便是最安全的沽出点,止蚀位可设于第二个较低的顶部之上。
根据江恩的研究,在一个快速的趋势中,市价逆市反弹或调整,通常只会出现两天,是一个判断市势的有效方法。

十二 快市时价位上升

江恩对于不同的市势,进行过相当长时间的研究,不同的市势,大致上可利用市场的动量来界定。换言之,市价上升或下跌的速度,成为界定不同市势的准则。
江恩认为,若市场是快速的话,则市价平均每天上升或下跌一点,若市场平均以每天上升或下跌两点,则市场已超出正常的速度,市势不会维持过久。这类的市场速度通常发生于升市中的短暂调整,或者是跌市中的短暂时间反弹。
在应用上面的原则时有两点要特别注意:

(1) 江恩所指的每天上升或下跌一点,每天的意思是日历的天数,而非市场交易日,这点是江恩分析方法的特点。

(2) 江恩所指的每天上升或下跌一点,每天的意思是日历的天数,而非交易日,这点是江恩分析方法的特点。

对于市汇来说,例如:马克、英镑和瑞士法郎,分析家惯常使用的是十点子,即每天上升或下跌0.0010;而日元方面,所用的则为每天0.10元日元。 换言之,在图表上将每天上升或下跌10点连成直线,便成为江恩的1 X 1线,是界定市好淡的分水岭。

同理,若市场出现升市中的调整或跌市中的反弹,速度通常以每天20点运行,亦即1 X 2线。
江恩对于各种市场走势的变化了如指掌,其中一个重要的观察是:“短暂的时间调整价位”。

一 般人认为,当市场的升势到达超买阶段,市场需要一段较长的时间以消化市场的技术状态。 不过,江恩认为,若市场在短促的时间大幅下跌,亦可消化整个市场的 超买技术状态。 江恩的意思其实是,时间与价位的影响可以互相转换的。 当市场处于一个超买阶段,市场要进行调整,若调整幅度少的话,则调整所用的时间便 会相对地长。 相反而言,若市场调的幅度大的话,则所需要的时间便会相对地少。

1987年股灾美国杜琼斯工 业平均指数只在极短的时间内下跌50%,便已经调整完数年来的上升升幅,便是一个十分重要的例子。 此外,1991年8月前苏联政变后,美元在数天内反弹 千多点子,亦是美元下跌的技术性调整。 故此,当市场调整幅度足够,不少技术超买/超卖状态已经完毕,投资者不容忽视。



巴菲特

1.选择收益状况较好,而且把股东利益摆在第一位的企业。

2. 即便这个企业业绩很出色,你也该以非常合理的价格收购这个企业。

3. 要进行长期投资。

4. 不要过度使自己的投资多元化。

CBOU plan

when reaction comes, buy @2.5 -2.6 for long term account 1; then observe how it evolves, buy more for long term account 2; Finally buy it for the swing account if it performed as expected. Make sure in each account, it is just part of the portfolio. Pay more attention to the company and its business, especially the EPS each quarter. Swing account expectation will be 200%-300%. Namely, once break out 3.5, expect it can climb to around 10 level...
Publish Post

Bullish bottom and bearish top - grow


Top: macd dead but new high

CBOU and FCSX



When these stocks drop back, plan to add them to my portfolio. FCSX: need more observations. CBOU: when it is back to the 200MA.

Swing trade system signal



1/3 of buying conditions are satisfied for QID today: extreme day

need to wait for the other two signals to be satisfied.

Today's day trading review

Today's day trading is bad, although I earned some money. But the trade itself is not good. If the trade is good, you will feel it, and you will earn the money very easily, not like this trade, earn the money very hardly.

Lessons learned:

1. Don't fight with the MAJOR trend. The major trend is down, playing with the reactions is not good at all.

2.Don't change your initial trade plan. I initially plan to buy QLD at the dip if today the market Gap up.

Good lessons to remember.

Today's real time market comments and day trade

Good morning.

Today probably the market will gap up, which is not good for Bears.

Not every day is good for day trading

so, make sure only trade when you think it is really a good day trading opportunity.

For such day tradings, holding it over night is very rare, unless you are very positive tomorrow you can sell it at a higher price. Like yesterday, I hold QID over night.

On the other hand, swing trade try to catch a longer trend in order to maximize the profits.

So:

ST - to maximize the profits
DT - to balance the risk, reward and always position yourself better for next good opportunity

A trading account combined both will be really nice for a sustainable growth. Finally, remember such a trading account is only small part of the diversified investment portfolio.

Today's Market Ananlysis



Today the market is surprisingly strong. The bearish down trend still need more confirmations. Tomorrow will be CRITICAL for both bulls and bears. IF tomorrow
1. close up, then BULLS win, then still another leg up.
2. close down, the down trend is then confirmed.

For tomorrow's day trading:
1. IF gap up, then buy QLD at the low
2. IF gap down, then buy QID at the low
3. IF no gap, then wait for the trend signals before jumping in

The market is forming the top now, but as a bear, I am also very careful here because the Bull's last run could be powerful....


Keys for day trading

1. Know the trend of the day

2. Find the major support and resistance level

3. Don't be greedy

Remember, it's day trading, you'd better lock your profits before they are gone.

A good trading strategy in a Bear Market

Short index
but long some really good potential star company's stock

For example, CBOU recently runs very well. It has been on my watch list for some time.

Today's day trading

Bought QID at 40.50

This bounce back is good chance to add some shorts for day trading.

Took the profits on QID

which are bought yesterday.

Nice profit. Never be greedy for day trading. Always keep at least half cash in the trading account so that you can quickly catch next good day trading opportunity.

How to sell

Never try to sell at the highest price.

Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.

The Market topped

and the down trend is confirmed.

NAZ topped at 1673.07

S&P topped at 869.60

INDU topped at 8131.33

How low we can go ?

Don't guess, just watch the market development and you will know then ...

Today's Market prediction

The major trend is down for today ....

Based on this morning's chart and AAPL's performance so far

If today can not close down, Bears may have some trouble ahead..

The fundamental economic condition

has not become better, it actually is getting worse:

March existing US home sales fall by 3 percent
- AP - 12 minutes ago
A real estate group says sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank by an unexpectedly large amount from February to March, dashing hopes of a spring housing recovery.

UPS 1Q profit plunges more than 55 pct. - AP - 8 minutes ago
UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Thursday first-quarter profit plunged as fewer people sent packages and used premium services like next-day air amid the global financial crisis.


ConocoPhillips says profit down 80 percent - AP - 45 minutes ago
ConocoPhillips said Thursday its first-quarter profit tumbled 80 percent from a year ago as sharply lower crude and natural-gas prices walloped results at the nation's third-largest oil company.

New jobless claims rise more than expected to 640K - AP - 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
New U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected last week, while the number of workers continuing to filing claims for unemployment benefits topped 6.1 million.




BAC

When BAC drops back to ~ 2.5, watch how it will develop. Could be a good turn around play.

It's in the watch list.

GM

If GM can survive this storm, it could be a good turn around story - good profitable opportunity.

Plan to watch GM's story development and the stock price changes when around $1.00

app

An interesting observation

Buy stocks in November and Sell in the coming April, in the long run, has proven a reliable way to make money.






If you can become highly proficient

at any one thing, you will rarely be without a source of income.

One nonvariable during the bad time

Make sure:

What you own belongs to you and not a lender.

An absolute principle of economics

No one, government or otherwise, can spend more than he makes indefinitely.

Asset Allocation

It's never a good idea to put all your assets and all your risk in a single asset class or investment.

I would like to spread several places:

1. CASH (Checking,saving,CD, and Annuity)

2. Real estate

3. Bonds funds (2 - 3 should be good enough)

4. Long term investment in quality potential star company stocks (expecting 10-30 folds)

5. Swing trading account based on the swing trading system

6. Day trading account based on the day trading system


For trading accounts, always keep about half amount in CASH so that you can quickly catch the good short term day trading opportunities.

Another potential star company to watch

SunPower Corporation (SPWRA)

Shares Outstanding5:86.00M
Float:83.20M

Total Cash (mrq):219.51M

Diluted EPS (ttm):1.09

2005 IPO

Financial BBS and Website List

Chinese

English

Today's Market Analysis



The bearish reversal in the end of the day is very impressive. It also leaves a long tail above the solid daily up bar, which could be a dangerous sign for bulls. The bearish down trend still needs more confirmation. Here is one clue, IF tomorrow the Market gap down and close down, then the down trend will have a good chance to be confirmed.

Always keep half cash in account

so that you can quickly catch the day trading opportunities. For example, today, bought in QID at 39.16.

More important, it relaxes you and gives you peace of mind.

This is a very important money management rule for trading and investment.

Combing the swing trade and day trading

together

While holding swing trades of QID/QLD, use the other half cash for day trading the same QID/QLD for flexible income ....

This is a good trading idea since the day trading part is more accurate now..

Timing is key for swing trading

because the BULL/BEAR's last run is very powerful.

what stock market ought to be irrelevant

There are good stocks in bear market.

There are also bad stocks in bull market.

Buffett has said:"As far as I am concerned, the stock market doesn't exist. It is there only as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish."

If you want to worry about something, worry about whether the company's business is doing well.

Pick the right stock and the market will take care of itself.

What are required for a good trading system ?

My random thoughts:

1. Consistently make money

2. No need to watch the market. It can give buy/hold/sell order based on the daily close price.

3. Signal is simple and easy to judge. So only take the user 5 minutes to make a trading decision.

To become efficient

you must

1. know the end at the beginning
2. quickly enter the "stable working state" - means become focused and dedicated on the thing you are doing

something about trading

If you follow the market too closely, you will easily lose money because of your emotion ....

So follow the trend

1. be right
2. sit tight

Think about your trading plans after the market close may help you make better trading decisions..

Reading List for Traders

For the books listed below, I have read them and have gained a lot from the reading. I think the books are great to have for every investors and traders. So I recommend them to you.

1.Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th Edition

This book is a critical reference for investors and traders--especially in today's tumultuous markets. It is the first to produce a methodology for interpreting and profiting from the predictable behavior of investors and markets--revolutionized technical investment approaches and continues to show traders and investors how to make money using chart reading.

2.Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Illustrated (A Marketplace Book)

This book is one of the most entertaining books ever written about stock trading and contains timeless advice on the markets. For example, "It is the big swing that makes the big money for you !"

3. How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad, Fourth Edition

4. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse

5. More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times

6. The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

7. The Great Crash of 1929

8. Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude

9. Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

10. The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm

11. The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders

12. Mastering the Trade: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups (McGraw-Hill Traders Edge Series)

13. High Probability Trading Strategies: Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures, and Stock Markets (Wiley Trading)

14. Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame

15. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom

16. Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
17. High Probability trading

18. Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management

19. Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition

20. Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader (Wiley Trading)

The stock market trend

In order to confirm the down trend, tomorrow the market should not close above 1340.

Some observations regarding the trend

There will be a definite trend for each year,each month, each week, and each day. If you know the trend, and trade during the time frame with that trend, you will gain. This could be applied to develop some trading techniques.

One good bond Fund-Wells Fargo Advantage S/T Muni Bd Inv (STSMX)

The investment seeks income exempt from federal income taxes while preserving capital. The fund normally invests at least 80% of assets in municipal securities that pay interest exempt from federal income tax, but not necessarily the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). It invests up to 20% of assets in securities that pay interest subject to federal AMT. The fund invests up to 15% of assets in below investment-grade municipal securities. Its dollar-weighted average effective maturity is less than 3 years.

Total Expense Ratio:0.66%

If great deflation comes

only cash and high quality bond fare well.

Regarding the Bubbles

1. Bubbles always make some people rich

2. Bubbles always deflate once they go to extremes, and redistribute the wealth

3. Trends can undergo extreme change when a generation peaks in its spending and productivity level

4P to judge an investment

People
Product
Potential
Predictability

cockroach theory

If you find one problem with a company, expect more problems.

The best way to invest your money

is to grow it with the fast growing company - tomorrow's star company

For example, $1 invested in WMT at it's IPO has grown to at least $5809 today.

Very simple rule: if your money can grow with tomorrow's star company, it surely is a super investment.

A good bond fund for diversification

Wells Fargo Advantage S/T Hi-Yld Bd Inv (STHBX) 5 star morningstar ratings

1. no fee
2. buy and sell any time
3. low cost ratio: 0.86%
4.
nice dividend every month

What will ultimately determine the stock price

is the company's EPS growth rate.

The stock price, in the long run, will be 100% proportional to the underlying company's EPS growth rate.

US real estate bottom estimate

Will hit at least the 2000 price level, or, may be worse, hit the 1996 price level

A pretty hard drop still on the way.

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如何长线持股 (ZT)

人性的弱点——人的本性不是努力去扩大收益,而是努力去扩大获得收益的机会!!

“这里让我说一件事情:在华尔街经历了这么多事情,在赚了几百万美元,又亏了几百万美元之后,我想告诉你这一点:我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱,总是我 坚持不动替我赚大钱,懂了吗?是我坚持不动!对市场判断正确丝毫不足为奇。你在多头市场里总是会找到很多一开始就做多的人,在空头市场里也会找到很多一开 始就做空的人。我认识很多在适当时间里判断正确的人,他们开始买进和卖出时,价格正是在应出现最大利润的价位上。他们的经验全部跟我的一样--也就是说, 他们没有从中赚到真正的钱。能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人很罕见,我发现这是最难学习的一件事。但是股票作手只有切实了解这一点后,他才能够赚大钱。" 摘自《股票做手回忆录》

在市场有利的时候,你必须学会习惯于获利,这是区别交易者是否成熟的一个重要标志。假设你的成本是8元,市场价格现在是80元,但是仍然低于其本身的价值,你是否会坚定的持有?很多的交易者在获利的时候惴惴不安,而亏损的时候却心安理得,这样如何能够长期稳定的获利?

长线交易有一个最大的特点:亏小赢大,他不重视盈亏的次数比例,而重视盈亏的质量,这是他与短线交易的最本质区别!