or a hyper inflation ahead ?
or stag inflation ahead ?
I am thinking these questions over the weekend. And seems no clue. But only one thing is for sure, the crisis can not be ended so quick because the unemployment rate is still up . I don't see any sign the real estate market will be better soon, especially the commercial real estate. I am watching the TIAA-CREF real estate annuity all the time, it just starts its down trend, no sign to stop yet.
So being alert is good for us now.
Just some random thoughts.
Lessons Learned for day trading gap ups
Knowing a stock's movement trend in one day is the key for day trading. Over years experience, I have learned hard how to predict a stock's daily movement. Here are something I want to share with my blog viewers:Based on the gaps and the first 15m bar, you can know the main trend of the stock in the day is up or down:
1. If a stock gap up but finished the first 15 minute bar with a close down bar, then during the day, the stock's major trend is probably down.
2. The charts showed some recent examples:
A. EXEL
B. AIG
C. BAC in February and March this year.
This is just my own personal observation.
So when you see such pattern and you are day trading the stock, short during the day should be your major action. For example, Last Friday EXEL, buy the May $5 put in the morning should be your action when you see the pattern and you will easily double your money in the day.
What a day for bears today - quick remarks
What a day for bears today ! This is a quick remarks for today. Over the weekend I plan to draw more charts and do more research and study the market more so that we can be ready for next week's market.
I also plan write a review and recap of the recent Bullish home run of the market since Early March so that we can learn from it and remember that even in BEAR MARKET, the bullish home run could easily make a fortune for you. And the key for that is to catch the chance and to long the right low priced stocks. To name a few: BAC from ~3 to ~15, a 5 bagger; LVS from 1.5 to 11, a 7 bagger; CBOU from 1.2 to 6.4, a 5 bagger .... More importantly, all these home runs happen not in years but in less than 3 Months. Who told us we can not make money as a bull in the bear market ? That's totally wrong ! We need to change our thoughts and remember this historic moment. History will repeat itself. No doubt at all. That's why we always keep analyzing the stock market.
Ok, back to today's market, the following is my short and quick remarks:
- Bears win today because bears still keep the Nasdaq 100 200MA.
- Moreover, the gap down has not been filled in three days so far
- RSI is heading down to break down 50
- the 45 degree downward trend is still holding well
What a nice day for bears
QID may 38 calls from 30 cents to $1 in less than a day!!!!
what a day for bears !
what a day for bears !
US Stock Market Update
As predicted earlier, The market finds the direction and coming down now.. This afternoon, a up wave will come, then the down wave continues. I still think finally the market will close down.
Bears Should Sit Tight - Close Remarks
Bears Should Sit Tight, that's my conclusion for today, ever since the top is successfully called and spotted on May 7, I am very confident with this market correction. I would like to forecast the market will go lower next week, even though today the market bounced back very nicely. I am still holding my QID position now.
Based on the Nasdaq 100, QID and QLD charts, I can tell the following:
Based on the Nasdaq 100, QID and QLD charts, I can tell the following:
- Today's bouncing back is very good for the bears, but bad for the bulls. Why? because it is purely a technical re-confirmation of the 200MA broken down.
- The gap down has not been brought back by the bulls.
- 38 is a critical level for QID, as mentioned before, today QID holds the 38 level very well, never touched 38 for any moment.
- This correction down trend has formed a nice 45% down slope channel. As long as the price is moving inside the channel, I don't see any reason for the end of this correction.
I missed a day trading opportunity today
when CPE comes down to fill the gap up, I should buy back at ~2.30 easy >10% profits today. Damm!
I need to remember this lesson so that I won't miss future such opportunities.
Today's Market Prediction is just updated
- This morning the market will fluctuates, but still up. The gap may not be filled.
- Around noon time, there will be a down wave.
- Depending on the strength of the down wave, the market will close down or up. I prefer more chance to close down.
- May be a big / \ today.
Great Market Correction - Close Remarks
1. Great Market Correction today because the NASDAQ 100 has successfully broken down 200MA with a gap down, which usually is powerful for the market direction. If the bulls can not get back this gap in three days, as a bear, what we need to do is just sleeping with our QID position or other short positions.
2. Also notice that RSI has broken down 50, that usually means the market will go lower.
3. As I mentioned before, 38 is critical for QID, and if 38 is successfully broken out, It should go to the ~40 level soon. Today, we can feel the power of the broken out, QID hits a high of 39.91. What a nice day.
4. All the signals including short term QID and QLD charts are pointing to a sure correction now. So expecting new lower than today's low is very reasonable. Holding your short positions tight will be wise even if tomorrow the market bounces back. Remember, this week is OE week.
5. With regard to QID, 42.5 is the next major resistance level, if QID can break out 42.5, it will try to hit 50 for sure.
Please note, once I see some warning signs on QID and need to sell QID, I will post the message in the blog as soon as possible.
Enjoy the Great Market Correction now.
2. Also notice that RSI has broken down 50, that usually means the market will go lower.
3. As I mentioned before, 38 is critical for QID, and if 38 is successfully broken out, It should go to the ~40 level soon. Today, we can feel the power of the broken out, QID hits a high of 39.91. What a nice day.
4. All the signals including short term QID and QLD charts are pointing to a sure correction now. So expecting new lower than today's low is very reasonable. Holding your short positions tight will be wise even if tomorrow the market bounces back. Remember, this week is OE week.
5. With regard to QID, 42.5 is the next major resistance level, if QID can break out 42.5, it will try to hit 50 for sure.
Please note, once I see some warning signs on QID and need to sell QID, I will post the message in the blog as soon as possible.
Enjoy the Great Market Correction now.
Positions Update
As mentioned before, second buying of QID has been carried out when QID broken out 38.
I also hold a relative small number of long positions of ADLR and CLFD, bought in yesterday.
I also hold a relative small number of long positions of ADLR and CLFD, bought in yesterday.
WARNING FOR THE BULLS
WARNING FOR THE BULLS: the 200MA in the daily chart of NASDAQ-100 is broken with a gap, if the broken is successful, and probably will be successful, this correction could be very sharp and hurtful for bulls. Fortunately, I have called/warned this correction last Thursday.
What time is the end of this correction - close remarks
1. The correction has been 4 days now. Each day a new lower low has been created, and no new higher high. The initial uptrend from march has been reversed to a down trend since Last Thursday (May 7)
2. Today, the 5/10 MA formed a dead crossing, which is not good for bulls. However, the 200MA still holds the bulls very well.
3. We have predicted the market top last Thursday in our blog (see previous posts), hope you don't have much loss due to the correction.
4. Now, when is the end of this correction? IF 200MA is broken down, I would say 50MA is the next possible support level. Also, MACD may come down to the zero axis.
5. Although QID didn't breakout 38 well, but still holds above the golden crossing very well, so I am
still holding the initial QID position. IF QID loses the golden cross in the chart below. I plan to exit the QID position.
6. So now we are in a correction and a downtrend, just need to wait for the end of this downtrend and be bull again, another leg up in the near future is very possible and expectable.
2. Today, the 5/10 MA formed a dead crossing, which is not good for bulls. However, the 200MA still holds the bulls very well.
3. We have predicted the market top last Thursday in our blog (see previous posts), hope you don't have much loss due to the correction.
4. Now, when is the end of this correction? IF 200MA is broken down, I would say 50MA is the next possible support level. Also, MACD may come down to the zero axis.
5. Although QID didn't breakout 38 well, but still holds above the golden crossing very well, so I am
still holding the initial QID position. IF QID loses the golden cross in the chart below. I plan to exit the QID position.
6. So now we are in a correction and a downtrend, just need to wait for the end of this downtrend and be bull again, another leg up in the near future is very possible and expectable.
Today's Market Analysis and Close Remarks
will be posted tonight, no later than 12:00AM, US Eastern Time.
I want to do more research.
I want to do more research.
What a nice intra day V reversal
Hope you have caught it.
This morning I have predicted today will close up. Not bad at all.
This morning I have predicted today will close up. Not bad at all.
CPE Target - Technical Analysis
If you have bought in just before the gap up, Congratulations. Last Friday, I just noticed CPE could have a home run, purely based on the Chart. This gives me more confidence on Trading with the Chart.
Ok, now from the chart, what's the possible target of CPE then:
1. The first target is 3.91
2. If 3.91 can be successfully broken out, then 7.23 is the target.
3. The 200MA will be the ultimate target of the CPE movement now.
4. Please notice that even the general market sucks this morning, CPE is doing pretty well.
So, Sit tight if you are in and right! On the other hand, Taking profits off the table can never be blamed if you can do this all the time.
Enjoy the riding !
Ok, now from the chart, what's the possible target of CPE then:
1. The first target is 3.91
2. If 3.91 can be successfully broken out, then 7.23 is the target.
3. The 200MA will be the ultimate target of the CPE movement now.
4. Please notice that even the general market sucks this morning, CPE is doing pretty well.
So, Sit tight if you are in and right! On the other hand, Taking profits off the table can never be blamed if you can do this all the time.
Enjoy the riding !
Morning Comments
Look at the daily SPX chart. A break of support doesn’t mean the uptrend will immediately end and the low retested very soon after. The market itself could easily go sideways in a range before making its next big move. At this moment, I don't see any reason to guess when a top will be put in place. The bears keep trying, and that’s one reason the market keeps making new highs.
Until yesterday, oil had been up 7 of 8 days. Hints were given the market needed a break, but the trend remains in place. So be cautious at this moment.
Until yesterday, oil had been up 7 of 8 days. Hints were given the market needed a break, but the trend remains in place. So be cautious at this moment.
Bears need to push harder to be successful - close remarks
1. The uptrend since March has been broken, no doubt, the market is in a correction now
2. For a sharp correction, the bears need to push harder and to break down the 200MA support. Otherwise, Bulls may win again.
3. Watch closely on QID 38 level, if it can breakout 38, the general market correction will continue. Otherwise, this correction may be over, and a new leg up may be around the corner.
4. So next several days will be critical, but also notice that this is the OE week. So it may disappoint both bulls and bears if you are heavily loaded and biased.
Today's market Prediction is correct
Today's market Prediction
Last update: May 11, ~10:00AM (ET)Today (May 11): DOWN
ET: USA Eastern Time
QID Alert
QID didn't successfully break out 38 this morning. IF QID lose the golden crossing, then this CORRECTION may be over, and another LEG UP in the stock market will bring us to see
DOW 10000. Just being alert, if you are heavy in shorts. I would like to wait to add QID later when it can break out 38. Now it could break down as well. Just a reminder.
DOW 10000. Just being alert, if you are heavy in shorts. I would like to wait to add QID later when it can break out 38. Now it could break down as well. Just a reminder.
CLFD is added to the 10 Bagger Stock Watch List
today. Clearfield, Inc. is a small company in the fiber optics field. The chart seems a nice set-up.
Great Gap Down this morning as forcasted last Friday
Before the market close. Hope you can make some money from this gap down. My QID already show profits on paper.
Tomorrow (May 11) GAP DOWN
ET: USA Eastern Time
Regarding the market condition now, here are my thought: The banking group practically went vertical last week and is due for a rest. The semis were weak last Thursday and Friday. So if the banks correct and the semis continue to drop, the market’s upside will be capped.
Be careful and protect your profits, if you have been long since March.
Tomorrow's Gap prediction
Last update: May 8, ~3:30PM(ET)Tomorrow (May 11) GAP DOWN
ET: USA Eastern Time
Regarding the market condition now, here are my thought: The banking group practically went vertical last week and is due for a rest. The semis were weak last Thursday and Friday. So if the banks correct and the semis continue to drop, the market’s upside will be capped.
Be careful and protect your profits, if you have been long since March.
Recent IPO Stocks
1. AONE (September, 2009)
2. VRSK (October,2009)
3. RUE (November, 2009)
4. DG (November, 2009)
5. RA (October,2009)
6. H (November, 2009)
7. DOLE (October,2009)
8. AVGO (August, 2009)
9. RST (April, 2009)
10.CYOU (April, 2009)
11.SFSF (November, 2007)
12.LRN (December, 2007)
13.N (December, 2007)
14.CTCT (October, 2007)
15. SOLR (July, 2008)
16. SOL (January, 2008)
17. RAX (August, 2008)
18. RMG (January, 2008)
19. HAWK (August, 2009)
20. NIV (March, 2009)
21. OMER (October, 2009)
22. VITC (September, 2009)
23. CPC (June, 2009)
24. CDCS (August, 2009)
25. AGAM (Oct, 2009)
2. VRSK (October,2009)
3. RUE (November, 2009)
4. DG (November, 2009)
5. RA (October,2009)
6. H (November, 2009)
7. DOLE (October,2009)
8. AVGO (August, 2009)
9. RST (April, 2009)
10.CYOU (April, 2009)
11.SFSF (November, 2007)
12.LRN (December, 2007)
13.N (December, 2007)
14.CTCT (October, 2007)
15. SOLR (July, 2008)
16. SOL (January, 2008)
17. RAX (August, 2008)
18. RMG (January, 2008)
19. HAWK (August, 2009)
20. NIV (March, 2009)
21. OMER (October, 2009)
22. VITC (September, 2009)
23. CPC (June, 2009)
24. CDCS (August, 2009)
25. AGAM (Oct, 2009)
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