or a hyper inflation ahead ?
or stag inflation ahead ?
I am thinking these questions over the weekend. And seems no clue. But only one thing is for sure, the crisis can not be ended so quick because the unemployment rate is still up . I don't see any sign the real estate market will be better soon, especially the commercial real estate. I am watching the TIAA-CREF real estate annuity all the time, it just starts its down trend, no sign to stop yet.
So being alert is good for us now.
Just some random thoughts.
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Yes, I have the same questions. I heard more people around us lost their jobs recently. But lots of people bought or planned to buy house this year in our city. The house market is bottom already?
ReplyDeleteAnd thanks for answer my questions about qid. We'll see it.
--yy
All about consumer confidence.. They are hoping to say the recession is over to make people spend money.
ReplyDeleteThis is just another manipulation move by the government.
Also, employment usually trails recovery in a recession, but in this case I think it should be an indicator that things are getting better, since the more job losses there are, the more houses that will be lost in an already hammered and battered real estate economy.
We weren't able to sell our 30-Year Bonds and that indicates that Interest Rates should go up (unless we print more money to buy our own debt again).
With rates going up, and the worst of the adjustable mortgages ready to reset.. higher rates would CRIPPLE the real estate market, not to mention more first time home buyers would be crippled (they don't see that 5% is near lowest of all time, they just see rates gonig from 4.875% to 5.05%
I am quite bearish for Q2, and may stay in bearish funds during earnings (SRS / FAZ / QID) .. but am afraid of the manipulation that may happen by gov for the banks.
Ben,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your sharing with us. very helpful