Knowing a stock's movement trend in one day is the key for day trading. Over years experience, I have learned hard how to predict a stock's daily movement. Here are something I want to share with my blog viewers:Based on the gaps and the first 15m bar, you can know the main trend of the stock in the day is up or down:
1. If a stock gap up but finished the first 15 minute bar with a close down bar, then during the day, the stock's major trend is probably down.
2. The charts showed some recent examples:
A. EXEL
B. AIG
C. BAC in February and March this year.
This is just my own personal observation.
So when you see such pattern and you are day trading the stock, short during the day should be your major action. For example, Last Friday EXEL, buy the May $5 put in the morning should be your action when you see the pattern and you will easily double your money in the day.
By the way, recap of this bullish home run since March and more detailed analysis will be delayed because it is too busy this weekend. On the other hand, I need more time to do the study. Thanks for your reading and sharing.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you. Thanks a lot for your generous sharing. Your blog is very very good. I visit it every day and have learned a lot from your great posts.
ReplyDelete美股评论：五大因素将使反弹失去动力
ReplyDelete2009年05月15日 09:53 新浪财经
新浪财经讯 北京时间5月15日上午消息，据国外媒体报道，尽管美国股市自3月来上扬40%后本周有所下滑，但仍有很多分析师认为股市还有进一步上升空间。不过，也有一些分析师认为美国股市将失去反弹动力，原因有以下五点：
1. 就业前景黯淡
Federated Clover资产组合经理马特-卡夫勒(Matt Kaufler)表示：“市场认为失业率将达到顶峰。”目前美国失业率接近9%，预计将达到10%。如果就业市场进一步恶化，股市将受到打压。
2. 能源价格持续上升
NYMEX原油期货已经突破57美元，今年以来上涨28%。AAA数据显示，美国汽油价格已经升至每加仑2.28美元，比上个月高20%。分析师认为，夏天伊始能源价格上升将再次促使美国消费者收紧支出。
3. 利率开始上升，削弱房屋所有者再融资能力
BNY ConvergEx首席市场分析师尼古拉斯-寇拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示，美国10年期国债收益率已经达到3.11%，较3月低点上升近半个百分点。利率大幅变动将使股票投资者不安。他指出：“为了使股市上扬，利率变动必须温和。”
4. 领先指标触及低点
Vix指数作为标普500指数的领先指标，已经降至雷曼兄弟宣布破产时的水平。DirexionFunds资产组合经理保罗-布莱甘迪(Paul Brigandi)表示，根据Vix指数目前水平，投资者可以认为“市场存在超买现象”。
5. 企业业绩开始令人失望
截至上周，公布第一季度业绩的企业利润平均下滑36%，基本符合分析师预期。Osterweis Capital Management创始人兼总裁约翰-奥斯特维斯(John Osterweis)表示：“如果企业盈利开始令人失望，市场将开始下滑。”(宁弦)
"If a stock gap up but finished the first 15 minute bar with a close down bar, then during the day, the stock's major trend is probably down."
ReplyDeleteThis works for stocks well. But I traded SPY several times based on the first 15 min bar and the market changed direction just after I entered. I lost money on both gap up and gap down using this method. I wonder this does not work for SPY. What do you think?
Thank you very much.
I think it is working for Qs and SPY, but not 100% for sure. It's all probability.
ReplyDelete