- If we can see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 can continue for another year, at least. This will be a very good bull market. Very similar to those bull market 1995 --> 2000 and 2003 --> 2007, for example.
- If we can not see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 will be over in the end of 2010 or early 2011.
Nevertheless, Please notice that the above conclusions are just based purely on my systematic statistical study on the US stock market behavior over the past 40 years. It may be wrong, even though the probability for being wrong is only 1%.
I will refer back to these important conclusions later as time is passing, no matter it is correct or wrong. Just to learn something from the market !
Put your bet with your analysis and your hypothesis, and let the market tell you if you are right or wrong ! It's a fun game, indeed, very fun game.
very interesting predictions
ReplyDeletedas nasty dude.
ReplyDeletenasty market.
good
ReplyDelete一般人建立操作原则时最大的错误，就是浪费太多时间，想要找出起涨点和反转点，以便能够买到最低价、卖到最高价，一旦不能在底部或头部一次搞定，失之交臂的价位常会盘踞心头，因而乱了步调。我觉得买到最低价、卖到最高价是很难掌握的，其中带有很大的运气成分，《财讯》月刊创办人邱永汉先生甚至认为这是不道德的。
ReplyDelete为了不会过早抢反弹（或错失波段行情），我宁可等市场自行决定了底部（或头部）后，再采取应对措施，要不然就是通过换股操作，抓住个股涨势中间容易操作的部分。有时候，我觉得炒股票就像吃鱼，要去头去尾地吃，如果鱼头和鱼尾都要吃，很容易被鱼刺卡住喉咙。根据我的观察，即使能够侥幸地买在底部附近，有时候股价却盘底盘很久，即使股价马上上涨，我们也常认为已经赚够了，而轻易抛出。
最容易干扰我们建立或遵守操作原则的，还包括过度迷信确切消息或权威人士的看法。依我看，这些过度依赖别人的人更是大赌徒，他们妄想不费太多力气就能致富，而把命运交给别人。当发现不对劲时，他们往往因为有所期待或为了等下一个指令而动弹不得。
我终于能够掌握股市的脉动，跑在趋势之前，不仅沉浸在赚钱的乐趣中，更对自己的眼光感到佩服。但股市对我而言，仍旧是个诡谲多变、充满惊奇的战场。想当年股市四大天王，“固一世之雄也，而今安在？”
因此，我时时警惕自己，在操作上必须保持弹性，心理上必须保持饥渴，态度上必须保持谦卑，否则马上会受到市场反扑。我热衷交易，以交证交税为荣；我迎接胜利，自信但不自我，也学习如何接受并控制亏损；成功时我心存感激，失利时我不怨天尤人。在股市，我不需要每天穿戴整齐就能讨生活，还体验了起伏更频繁的股市人生。我愿效法大投机家科斯托兰尼，在股市中活到老，“玩”到老。
- when TAs are similar, try to trade those companies with
ReplyDeleteobviously improving FA or those in hot/leading sectors
- try to trade those companies whos 51050250MA pattern give the same signal as other TA cues, such as chart pattern formation, MACD, volume pattern, candle stick pattern at key price levels, etc. If there are more confirmation from other TA tools, then the chance is higher
- don't set up your position in one shot; pyramid instead