Actually, It starts from the ALERT before !
As mentioned before, the tasks of this DOWN wave is the following:
- fill the gap up
- test 1960, the boundary of the embedded trap-zone
- test 1940, the boundary of the trap-zone
So please keep close watch at both 1960 and 1940 now. More detailed charting will be presented later.
Yesterday, I thought the market's re bounce target is 2000. So far, it seems the market is very weak. I hope you are not caught by this long expected DOWN wave !
yeterday,GS's economist said next year's economy is not good at all. -zz
ReplyDeleteThank you. --yy
ReplyDeleteI have some short and a little long for hedge. Once go lower than 1960, what do you recommend? Remove long? Or remove some short? thanks.
ReplyDeleteI don't advise on how to trade. I just share my view on the market development.
ReplyDeleteNo problem. Was thinking how your view can be applied. Thanks for your market analysis, keep up the good work. It helps balance some of the other views.
ReplyDeleteDoes your TA give any indication as to the depth of this next wave down? I am expecting a wave down as well, and I have gone to cash since we appeared to be topping late last week. Thanks for your information.
ReplyDeleteac
Regarding the DOWN wave target, my idea is: DON"T GUESS A BOTTOM ! I have mentioned this idea before.
ReplyDeleteNever guess a top or a bottom !!
Otherwise, you will be trapped by the market.
Just follow the trend, follow the inevitable POWERFUL move. That's the way to make money in the market.
Guess top or bottom will lead you to a trap ! Why ? Think it for a while by your self !
I can share my view: guessing top and bottom will make you want to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, which is very dangerous. The topping and bottoming process is full of false moves, one mistake could kill your position very very easily !
Nobody knows the exact bottom or top because the nature of them are randomness. And the process to make them are very very emotional. If you don't understand this, the market will TEACH YOU A HARD LESSON sooner or later.
So, what we really need to do is to dynamically follow the market! That's all !
For example: I have mentioned three targets of the DOWN wave:
1. Filling the gap
Once this is completed. If the DOWN wave continues, then it will drop to the second target 1960 after a bounce.
2. 1960
Once 1960 is reached. If the DOWN wave continues, then it will drop to 1940.
So you see the TREND very clearly. Right ?
If this trend continues, the next one is 1900, and 1880.
Unless the DOWN wave changed direction, it will never drop to the next target.
OK. Follow the trend unless the trend is reversed! Never guess the top and the bottom because the market could be bottomless or topless, theoretically.
When do you know the trend is reversed/reversing vs a "bounce" that you described after each target is reached?
ReplyDeleteCan said target 1940 is touched, then bounced to 1960 (previous broken target) and touch back target 1940 again. Does this mean down trend is in tack?
I usually use the trap-zone and money-making zone to check the trend reversal. For details, please READ carefully the articles in the side bar column Technical Analysis Tips
ReplyDeletehttp://tjts.blogspot.com/2009/05/technical-analysis-tips.html
I will apply my theory to dynamically follow the market here so you will be able to see how I apply the theory to application.
It's very hard to explain here in a few sentences.
I agree completely, been taught a couple of lessons the hard way in trying to catch a top or bottom. I will no longer catch falling knives, etc. I will be very interested in understanding how to identify the trend, and not get shaken out of winning positions, or get trapped. I exited my longs because of a false breakdown, so I have plenty to learn.
ReplyDeleteThanks again for your insights.
ac