The danger in a bullish up wave market

This bull market since march has been ~ 5 months so far. Please forgive me, if you don't like me to call this big UP wave as a bull market.

The hard lesson learned is to sit tight when you are right from the start of the trend until the end of the trend based on the daily chart. How to do this ? it's extremely hard because no body can resist the temptation to take profits off the table, especially when the market correction comes, every human being is worrying about the loss of the hard learned profits. I have made several mistakes during this wave. For example, I bought in BAC at around 3, but all my BAC positions are called out because I sold some stupid covered calls and want to make some idiot small profits. You know, it's so painful to see it climbs to 15 ! You may say I can buy back at the correction. No way. It's the human nature, at least for me, to buy back a stock at a higher price than the price you sold it.

So the danger in a bullish up wave market is the lost of your stocks, not your profits. But holding stocks always have some risk, right ? So here is my solution:
  1. Find a good potential stock and get in based on the daily chart.
  2. Hold half position tight until the end of the UP wave based on the daily chart. At the same time use the other half position to trade based on the hourly chart so that the other half position's cost is reduced. Once the cost is reduced to zero, then risk-free now. It's not that hard to reduce it to zero cost. For example, once doubled, sell half. then the other half is free !
  3. Finally sell the other half risk-free position as the trend finally reversed !
On the other hand, the human nature let people always sit tight when they are wrong! Human being always resist to take loss, even they are real. It's so painful ! I know a friend, from his published blog, holding QID from 58 down to 26 since March! I can't image how painful it could be, but I understand why he do so. That's the human nature !! In order to win in this market, we need to act on the rules not our human nature.

Cut loss very quickly when the loss is small ! If keep cutting losses, then stop and think why ? what's wrong ? let profits run and grow, if you don't have a trade win you more than 500% profits in 1-2 years. Then also need to think what's wrong ? Only in this way, we can continue to grow !

4 comments:

  1. Have you ever thought about publsihing your trades? Collective2.com lets you set up your trading system and sends out signals of your trades. You can charge for subscriptions and I know I am sure I would subscribe if you started a system out.

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  2. Greg,

    Thanks for your idea. I just don't have the interest and motivation to do so. Not to mention, I don't have the time either. I need to foucs more on trading and related research, which is much more fun ! Hopefully, I can keep the blog up and running. But I can not promise that since I am super busy recently.....

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  3. trading is a way to total destruction.
    unless u are part of the circle and have an proven edge.

    this business is too difficult for most folks. most investors are meant to be wiped out in the end, even if they managed to gain $1-10 million assets before.
    divert to other more durable businesses is a good idea.

    ReplyDelete
  4. A ripe apple falls itself.

    ReplyDelete