Will it be Bull's time this afternoon, crossing my fingers.
But I still keep my today's market close forecast [1] unchanged.
Since breaking out the down trend channel, after a short re testing of the down trend channel's bounday, QID has gained more than 2 dollars, what a nice bounce. I will expect QID will form the golden crossing again. If so, Bears really is back.
The key for QID is again the 38 level. Once it holds well above 38, it will try to break out 40 again.
Thanks, tiger. I hope QID can break out 40 soon.
ReplyDeleteActually, a bloody day for bulls ..
ReplyDeleteI closed my QID position at 38.21 (stop set at 38.25).. I was going to jump back in at 37.75 but order never filled.. I'll look at entering back around 38.00 hopefully before the last hour of trading (or wait to see the direction right then).. then get out tomorrow before close at hopefully 39.80 .. or 40.
ReplyDeleteQID is looking quite bullish, I just needed to get some capital locked in.. incase my FAZ starts tanking.
QID options are looking great and hope to get back in closer to expiration to sell some 41 strikes again..
Ben,
ReplyDeletenice trade. Congratulations to your profits. Please let us know your next move, so that we may follow, or give you some of our opinions.
Looks like QID may retest 38. If hold and breaks out 40. QID may rush to 50 level. I still hold some QID, not too much since I unloaded them when it breaks down 38. I regret I didn't buy back more yesterday at 36.
Tiger
What a bloody day for bulls. Bulls hope are gone. The power of bears is the same as the power of bulls.
ReplyDelete...
US is following the global worlds, maybe China.
ReplyDeleteTiger,
ReplyDeleteYeah.. I missed the massive run up.. on QID.. but will get in again at 38.00 if it hits (and depending on market pattern).
May push my entry up to 38.25, level II trades show it may touch this level prior to close. Tomorrow is going to be a slow day, and IMO it'll be red with people dumping prior to the 3 day weekend (too much news come out these days. ).
Right now I'm in GOLD @ 41.50, CMO / NLY as a hedge to my loser FAZ (loser because my break even is still in the 6's).
I did get into GM at 1.72 .. Dumped right now before close at 1.90 .. nice quick trade.. Like I posted on your other blog.. it had too much support today.. once it didn't break down past the upper 1.50's and stayed at 1.60's for a really long time.. when I saw it breaking upwards.. was a huge buy signal.. was in a bit late as the move ups .. were quick (damn market orders).. but still .. nice jump again.. to dump .. YAY
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteNice trade. Thanks for sharing.
Tiger
en,
ReplyDeleteRegarding GM, I feel it might be a good opportunity if when it pulls back, but won't break 1.00. It reminds me the BAC in March.
One concern for GM, is it's possibility for bankruptcy. May be too much risk involved.
Tiger
Why I made the decision to enter GM yesterday?
ReplyDeleteIf you pay attention to 3-month chart, it's not regular gap down, but comes to close to the ending of a 1.5 month slide started on March 27. From chart analysis, combined with heavy volume, it's at or near the end of the down slide. I agree with you that the long term trend may not be up, but who cares about long term when you only focus on the short term. For the short term, when the worst news (GM Executive all selling) came onto the news wire, it often marked a moment of oversold. Most media reports are focusing on the nightmare scenario for this company. That is exactly the contrarian call to buy the stock. BTW, when your plan is to trade for short term, never let fundamental cloud your decision making, fundamental becomes irrelevant for short term trading. Be also very careful, the so called short term trading is not meant to be day trading, short term can be 2 days to 2 weeks.
If stock market is that easy for regular people to understand, everybody would become a bilionaire, right? :-) Stock market is basically us (all of us combined), therefore you must not act like yourself in a normal way to outsmart it. If you think in everybody's psychology, you will become meat on the choppy block. Media sentiment is definitely an accurate reflection of mass sentiment, that's why you must NOT listen to media. Rather, acting against media sentiment may better you chance of profitability.
In some sense, housing market acts the same way, although not exact. Housing market, especially rental housing market is a FixedIncome game, at least, investor is not as blind or as vague about a company's hidden strength or weaknesses, at least the investor can find the property's fundamental by looking at his rental rate and replacement cost to evaluate a deal. Some method used to analyze a Fixed income bond product can be similarly applied to the housing investment. Stock market is notoriously less transparent, and full of traps to fall into. Stock market is mostly a psychological warefare against not others, but SELF.
GM is too high for me now. .It's not risk the potential reverse split, esp if it's something like 100 to 1 which was "thrown out there".
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is going to be a day that I may not touch since PPT, and MM's can really do what they want with the low volume.
I may go into FAS for a quick play.. but again markets don't open for a good 11 hours.. so anything can change, and I'll play it by ear pre-market and see how markets moving.. (if no direction, then not going to open any new positions, even temporary since at 11PM PST the volume will likely drop off like a rock.).
If oil goes up tomorrow.. I'll short it again.. if S&P goes up signifigently .. then I'll short it. (even over the 3-day .. :O ).
But my guess is we gap up at open, we're flat all day.. then some profit taking prior to the 3-Day as people will get too nervous to hold.