A failed bounce up day ?

This morning's gap up is pretty impressive. But very soon, the gap is filled. Moreover, the indexes are turned to RED. Is today a failed bounce up day ? Let's watch and learn.

For the market sentence, I still think correction continues, but bulls are still in control, and a leg up to make a new higher high than previous is very expectable [1] .

EURO has a nice run up so far. Oil is above 64 now. Remember before, I have mentioned if divergence happens between EURO and US stock market, US stock market usually follow EURO. Let's see if this time, the US stock will follow the EURO.

EXEL in our watch list [2], has a nice gap up this morning, so far up ~28%. I expect it can breakout 6.11 soon.

PPCO [3] continues to hold well above 2.2, very positive sign. Once 2.30 is broken out, should run up for a while, regardless of the volume.

GM reports that bondholders would get an increased stake in the company if they agree to not fight plans for a quick bankruptcy turnaround. A positive sign. SO far, GM stock price performs well because it never breaks down $1, the benchmark price so far. I expect a up wave in GM if the general market is OK. So may be some short term opportunity in GM. But high risk. ABSOLUTELY EXIT GM ONCE $1 is broken down.


[1] new higher high expectable

[2] EXEL watchout

[3] PPCO watch 2.30
at 5/28/2009 10:13:00 AM

15 comments:

  1. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 10:37 AM

    EXEL touches 6.1 so far. only 1 cent from 6.11...

    Tiger

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  2. AnonymousMay 28, 2009 at 10:44 AM

    Thanks. Hopefully a nice up day today, or at least not down big..

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  3. TechnicalAnalysisMay 28, 2009 at 10:47 AM

    watch out PPCO, this afternoon, may be some run up
    TA

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  4. AnonymousMay 28, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    nice pick of EXEL

    PPCO looks good too.

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  5. TechnicalAnalysisMay 28, 2009 at 11:18 AM

    EXEL, huge volume today. amazing.

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  6. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 11:31 AM

    Ben's TBT today is not good. down ~2% .

    Hope Ben is doing well.

    Tiger

    ReplyDelete
  7. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 11:32 AM

    TA,

    I agree. PPCO may break out 2.25 this afternoon.

    Tiger

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  8. Ben KevanMay 28, 2009 at 1:26 PM

    Down 2% isn't anything when you compare to long tern gain I'll get after 10 / 30 year bond reports.

    Look at GOLD .. that's flying for me..

    Markets turned because $26B 7-Yr notes sold at 3.3% .. that means people are most likely leaving equities to bonds.. strange that market doesn't sell off more.. is this a head fake? some people gaining what they lost yesterday? Looks like we'll probably have a healthy up day after yesterdays drop.

    I'm going to check put / call ratio after call (should be low) .. remember like I said yesterday .. the 3 days following the first jump in put / calls were up, then all hell broke loose mid Feb - March.

    Not looking for a 1 day home run right now.. but some sustained gains :) ..

    GOLD again new 52-week high.. and is almost $30 PPS higher then when I purchased 3 months back.

    ReplyDelete
  9. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 1:48 PM

    Ben,

    Usually, when stock market crashes, bond will shoot up since money flowed in bond from equity, just like last year.

    If both equity and bond crashes, where will the money go ? Money market ?are you kidding ?

    Just some random thoughts.

    Tiger

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  10. Ben KevanMay 28, 2009 at 2:06 PM

    Yes.. bond yeilds will go up, and prompt more people from moving to equities to bonds, hence a drop in the markets.

    Right now yeilds are going up, market is going up, which shouldn't happen as you note... However, people are having a hard time trusting bonds (esp company bonds tied to UAW) and are requiring higher yeilds, which makes it harder for companies to get capital (esp again the ones tied with the UAW).

    If yeilds keep going up, we'll have a run on bonds, huge drop in markets and a recycle of the housing crisis (since people will not be able to refinance at the rates they once have).

    Yeilds have been going up for a while, along with the market..

    TBT is gaining back pretty nice from its low of the day, GOLD again is very strong and it still seems the market is trading on a thread.

    And it's usually the run to bonds that create the market drop, so if we continue to see the rises in these yeilds (did you see the increase in the lower denomination notes today?) we'll see a major sell off.. I can smell it around the corner.. Quite possibly on the 11th of June around 10:30PST

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  11. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 2:19 PM

    Ben,

    appreciate your sharing and good luck with your holdings.

    by the way, what kind of GOLD did you buy ? GLD or what else?

    Thanks in advance,
    tiger

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  12. Ben KevanMay 28, 2009 at 2:36 PM

    GOLD .. I played Mining company since I didn't want to have to pay the collectors tax that GLD and the asset has..

    As for physical assets I have been collecting silver for a while now.

    Taking a beat today on QID and FAZ .. but again i'm not in territory I haven't seen before haha..

    Wish I sold options on both this AM.. which i neglected to do.. :(

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  13. TigerMay 28, 2009 at 2:41 PM

    Thanks. Ben. I may buy some GOLD later. IF QID breaks down 35, it could be very ugly. Be careful.

    TIger

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  14. Ben KevanMay 28, 2009 at 3:48 PM

    yeah.. todays an ass whopping on the bears.. i still don't have any fear :) ..

    i sold the blocks of QID at 35.50 and 35.00 .. so now i'm just sitting on the block at 38 right now.. not worried about it.. i'll dump at 39 next week.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Ben KevanMay 28, 2009 at 3:52 PM

    It's going to be an impressive close.. very strong for the bulls..

    ReplyDelete

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