10 year Nasdaq chart and analysis

Some people have been recently driven crazy by this Bear Market Rally, including myself. Of course, following the trend and making money, no doubt about that at all. That's what I have already done since March. However, I want to show you as well as myself the big picture here in order to keep myself being cautious and calm, especially when nice profits have been accumulated recently.

The key questions are:
1.How long will this 2009 rally from March last

and

2. is it the beginning of a new bull market ?

From the 10 year chart above, Please notice that:

1. The bear market rally, at most, can only result in a 50/200 MA golden cross. And will give up the golden cross very soon.

2. The bear market rally starting point is far away from the 200MA. It takes a SUBSTANTIAL bullish
move to reach the 200MA and make the golden cross.

On the other hand, a real trend reversal (such as early 2003), or a new BULL market starts without such signals.

In addition, every time hits 200MA, no matter what, the market always retreat back.

So here are the conclusions based on the chart:

1. A correction back to 50MA (~1600) is expectable, no exceptions in the last 10 years.

2. It's too early to say it's a new BULL market. Even no golden cross yet, not to mention
if it can hold the golden cross.