Tiger Gao Market Watch

S&P top chart review - 1973

This is a very nice chart to show a top pattern.

I miss you guys and the blog since I have been on a busy business travel for the past few days.

Fortunately, We didn't miss the bullish run up for the past few days, which is more important !

The most important thing is to change your thinking now, if you are still acting as a bear like last year, namely 2008.

Two important forecasts and predictions in the past have been listed below:

If I think there is a need to modify or update my market views, I will post them in the blog as soon as possible.

Another nice thing about the blog, you can schedule your posts ! pretty neat ! I love it!

Enjoy the day !

GS - a leading indictor of the market

Please refer to the chart below. See how GS is a flag of Bulls and how it lead us up all the way.

Please notice GS's up trend has started from last December. Then BAC and JPM starts to run up from March ! Then the UP wave is spreaded to other financial stocks.

How amazing the bulls can hold DNDN for so long

How amazing the bulls can hold DNDN for so long at high prices ! This is a good chart to learn how a stock can runs up ! So don't worry too much about selling at the top ! The top can be formed for a long time. The key is to find a real stock who can have a bullish run !

BAC - a short review

From the chart below, you may see the bottom is formed, and then confirmed later.

For a thread on BAC's charts, the link is here.

LVS - the beautiful V in the chart

LVS - the beautiful V in the chart, what a nice application of my simple symmetry principle for the chart reading. Please find the symmetry principle in the technical analysis tips part.

My current US stock market view and predictions

Over the weekend, I have studied the past 40 years, how the bulls performed and how the bears performed using my own systematic analysis. Based on such statistics, I have drawn the following important conclusions, I am using S&P 500 as an example:

If we can see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 can continue for another year, at least. This will be a very good bull market. Very similar to those bull market 1995 --> 2000 and 2003 --> 2007, for example.
If we can not see quite measurable market corrections (such as S&P 500 drops to below 900) before August, 2010. Then This bull market from March, 2009 will be over in the end of 2010 or early 2011.

Nevertheless, Please notice that the above conclusions are just based purely on my systematic statistical study on the US stock market behavior over the past 40 years. It may be wrong, even though the probability for being wrong is only 1%.

I will refer back to these important conclusions later as time is passing, no matter it is correct or wrong. Just to learn something from the market !

Put your bet with your analysis and your hypothesis, and let the market tell you if you are right or wrong ! It's a fun game, indeed, very fun game.

A chart to review - MGM

A nice chart to review and learn from it -MGM

Once the trend is reversed, it follow the symmetry rule to go back ! Very nice !

What are the bears' view on the current stock market

First of all, I am a bull, until the chart shows me clearly the selling signal, I will not become a bear. I just need to follow the market trend, no matter how irrational the market is ! I strongly believe there are natural laws governing the market motion, but it may be not well understood by human now. As a result, one missing reasoning will puzzle us very easily. That's why you think the market is irrational. But, in fact, the market is very rational and smart ! The key is we, human beings, can't really understand millions of reasons behind the market movement.

However, my mind is always OPEN to other opinions because this is related to real money. One mistake could kill us very easily in the market.

Here are some bears market view, I want to share here:

Market will find a top in September
Bears expect the stock market will crash again until the end of 2010.

Most bears reasoning are based on economic conditions analysis, very few of them are using the chart reading.

At the same time, bears are bullish on US dollars since dollar is strong during last market crash.

As expected before, ETFC's gap

will not be filled for some time. So far, 3 days passed, the gap is still open.

This is a very good sign ! The previous post is linked here.

The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.

It would be very interesting to learn how long the gap can be held well

What a nice day for Bulls again

What a nice day for Bulls again today

S&P 500 make a new higher high of 1044.14 today !

Only Dow Jones Industrial Average is left to beat the previous high of 9,666.71! I think It will make a new higher high soon !

Please change your mind, follow the trend, it's a bull's market !!

Every market correction will be a good buying in opportunity ! I will follow the market very closely here. Once I see some warning signs for the Bulls, I will inform you guys here !

Think about this, if NASDAQ stands well above 2000, S&P 500 stands well above 1000, these numbers are magic numbers, the market won't stop there for sure !

Fortunately, we have spotted this magic bullish run up since March ! I sincerely hope you do as well, at least, didn't short the market at the March's bottom !

Please recall my post on April 26 to learn, which is quoted here " It is a good time to learn how to know a rally is a Bull starts or still Bear reactions ..... "

Again, keep in mind that:

A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !

The big money only can be made through sitting tight when you are right !

I wish I still hold BAC which is bought at about 3 now.

Nasdaq made a new higher high today

Nasdaq made a new higher high today 2,066.34 !

What a day today !

Some people still think this is a bear market rally and think the rally or bullish run is irrational !

However, what I want to say is:

Yes, there is a reason for market's up and down. But you probably don't know it now.
When you know the reason, understand the reason, and think the market's move is very reasonable, so you jump in. Man, probably, you are too later

There is no reasoning for trading the market ! Just follow the trend and sit tight until the big trend is going to be reversed!

One thing is for sure: A big trend needs time to develop and will take time to change !

For example, the Bear market from 2007, ends until March 2009, it takes more than one year. So this Bull's market since March 2009, will probably end some time beyond 2010.

Some friends may ask what will happen after this pushing up wave ? I already posted before in only 15 points to my predicted target.

I quote it here again:

"Form a new no-trend zone, and destroy completely Bear's hope !"

the no-trend zone is the same as trap-zone.

So, you know a trap-zone is expected after the Bull's money-making zone is completed.

Another beautiful day for bulls

Another beautiful day for bulls today !

Every time, after the market correction, or the trap-zone in the language of my own theory, the market will be pushed up for a new higher high! That's typical since March this year. It is also typical for a bull market!

Let's see this time if a new higher high will be made. Put your bet, and crossing your figures!

Following the market trend is so wonderful !

ETFC - very good day

ETFC - very good day today !

I am expecting today's gap up won't be filled for some time.

I have started following ETFC from the beginning of August, 2009, when ETFC is around 1.40. Here is the chart I posted in the blog.

The series of the follow ups with regard to ETFC can be found here.

What a bullish day today !

What a bullish day today !

I know some friends are still bearish on the market because they don't know how to follow the trend ! I wish they have read my grand view on the market.

The rally from March is not a bear market rally, but, indeed, a new bull market !

Never fight with the trend, but follow it !

JAZZ - up 20-fold in 5 Months

JAZZ - a 20-fold in about half year.

Below is the review chart !

For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.

VVTV - climbed more than 17-fold in half year

VVTV - climbed more than 17-fold in half year.

Below is the chart for review.

For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.

SCSS - a 15-fold in about half year

SCSS - a 15-fold in about half year, below is the review chart !

For other similar breakout charts, please follow the link.

GIGM - review chart

Below is a GIGM review chart:

50/250 golden cross three times forming a round bottom
Then kiss three times before hit the all time high
The 50/250 death cross marked the new DOWN trend.

Other technical analysis tips are linked here.

Some key points to watch a stock price development

The stock price development is a pretty complex thing in nature due to many uncertainties and unknown events. But, still, there are some clues to understand how it is moving and why. It's very similar to treat a sick people as a doctor. One important thing is to remember: dynamics

In addition, don't just rely on some simple rules. Combinations of many tools are much more helpful and reliable.

Below is a short list of key points I always keep watching:

50MA and 250MA (the positions, movements, etc.)
trap-zones vs. money-making zones
chart patterns
price relative positions
previous substantial waves (UP or DOWN)

SPPI - a nice breakout and run chart

SPPI - a nice breakout and run chart to review please note the following key points (other breakout charts are also linked)

Gap ups
50 and 250 MA
V bottom line
/\ top line
trap -zone and money-making zones

ETFC - the bottom line

Below, the read line in the chart is ETFC's bottom line for the bulls.

Previous posts on ETFC can be found here.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent in August

which is a 26-year high.

But the market is still in green. Pretty good !

Grand view of the current stock market: S&P500 as an example

Many people got lost in the market up and downs, especially after some measurable moves. Fears and greedy desires are coming up very very easily. But if you apply my unique stock price development model, which can be found here if you are new to it, you can easily grasp the market's motion and quickly understand why the market is moving this way, not that way!

Below is a daily chart for S&P500, which is perfect for today's grand view on the current US stock market. Below I will list several key conclusions based on my unique stock price development model and theory:

Since 2000, and actually until now, the US market is forming a perfect trap-zone
Technically, this trap-zone has been completed, just wait for the confirmation
We are partly in the Bull's money-making zone, this Bull's money making zone will make a new higher high, if the upper boundary of the trap-zone is broken out successfully
The dynamics of the trap-zone is the leading force for this range of the market motion

Beautiful yet powerful symmetry principle - GIGM as an example

Previously, I have mentioned the powerful symmetry principle for several times. Here is a beautiful chart of GIGM to demonstrate the power of it:

From ~2002 to ~2004, a trap-zone is formed
Broken out of the trap-zone signals a reliable trend reversal
Then GIGM goes up with ~ 2000% gain in several years, forming a symmetry round circle line

The stock price movement always follows some beautiful nature patterns, it is really an art work of people's hearts !

SVA - a typical stock price development chart

SVA - a typical stock price development chart need to study well

accumulation stage: from 0.75 - 1.02
push up stages
the previous V bottom line is the life line for the bullish run
250 MA is another key
The topping process is very interesting

SVA initially caught my eye when it has a nice chart set up. The set up chart is here.

Previous SVA charts, analysis, and snapshots are listed here.

Gap down - a sign of weakness

Gap down - a sign of weakness

Gap down is an effective sign of weakness of bulls, especially closed down that day, if you apply it to the daily chart.

It is especially useful for a straight gap up move ( at least 3 gap ups in a row) in a almost 90 degree angle ! Once the gap down appears after a gap up, especially with a close down, then a measurable retreat is coming. A real example is ETFC, please refer to the following chart.

Other technical analysis tips can be found here as well.

A reply to the comments

Recently, a friend has the following comment:

"based on your theory, there are two dimensions, time and price move. Yes, you predicted the down-up-down move, but that is only one dimension. with different time dimensions, what you predicted can be right or wrong. What is more important, without knowing the time dimension, even though we know the price dimension will be down-up-down wave, we still don't know how to trade since we don't know when is the pivot point."

Here is my reply:

All my analysis and predictions are free and just for sharing my market watch purpose. How to take advantage of it is your job.
I have more than 5 trading and investment accounts to take care of, which is my first priority. So my market watch sharing may be not very quick. Please just read them for fun or try to learn how to follow the market trend, how to analyze the market. But don't follow my trading. Please read the "Disclaimer and Notice" at the end of the page, which is quoted below

"Any ideas or opinions expressed by the website are for informational purposes only. Trade at your own financial risk as we assume no responsibility for your investing decisions.
Please keep in mind that any recommendations and revealed trades may be paper trading without real money involved. So trading stocks at your own decision since only you can control the RISK of your own trades."

For the time dimension, I have some theory and rules to analyze them, for example, symmetry principle, magic number theory, etc. It's far more complex to explain in several sentences. It's extremely hard to understand and master also. I will share more on that when I feel it is ready to do so.
With this sentence "with different time dimensions, what you predicted can be right or wrong." I think you are totally lost in my theory. You'd better read them again, especially read with the chart. The beauty of my stock price movement model is its distinct conclusion on the market movement. Otherwise, it is not applicable at all.

Finally, I think bokchoy's comment is very good for you: "thx tiger for the posts. My 2 cents for the above coments, my understanding of tiger's theroy is: you also need to look at the trap zone vs. money making zones. So right now, we may be out of the trap zone and move into the $ making zone to the down side."

At least, the combination and correlation of the trap-zone and money-making zone has been clearly demonstrated.

The stock market just moves as predicted before

The stock market just moves as predicted before !

I quote some words from Last week's post below:

"Usually, this is not good for the bulls, especially when the Nasdaq market breaks down ~1990 again. "

"Currently, the market is in the stage of the UP, and I am expecting a DOWN wave to come once this UP wave is completed ! "

" It is exactly in the predicted order DOWN-UP-DOWN. "

Now we are in the DOWN wave, as I expected after the DOWN and UP waves.

The first target of this DOWN wave is to hit the 50MA ....

A typical stock top pattern - STAR

Please notice that:

Divergence for the top
V bottom line broken down
Transition of the trap-zone

Such top will produce a measurable correction. Other technical analysis tips can be found here as well.

ETFC - measurable retreat

This is a very measurable retreat in ETFC. If you sold it at above 1.80 then bought back at 1.50. You didn't lose your shares but gain 30 cents per share. Very good opportunity to reduce your position cost to zero.

Once you see a V is forming, and smell that the V bottom line will be broken down, then take your profits first since such patterns will surely let you buy back at much lower prices.

The gap up is almost filled today. For more ETFC analysis and predictions, please follow the link here.

Important top and bottom chart signs

For the top signs, make sure that the price can immediately drop for a measurable amount after you sell.

double heads M pattern
V pattern bottom line is broken down with new lower low
divergence for the top
Wait to sell at about or above the V pattern bottom line, when the price is in a UP wave

For the bottoms signs, make sure that the price can immediately climb up for a measurable amount after you buy.

double or multiple bottom W pattern
/\ (the reversal V) pattern top line is broken out with new high higher
divergence for the bottom
wait to buy at about or below the /\ pattern top line, when the price is in a DOWN wave

The KEY is to buy a stock when it is at the end of a DOWN wave, and to sell a stock when it is at the end of a UP wave.

Other technical analysis tips can be found here as well.

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